3 Best Pitching Props for Framber Valdez vs Red Sox

Check out this prop betting guide for Game 5 of the ALCS with a focus on Framber Valdez.
Check out this prop betting guide for Game 5 of the ALCS with a focus on Framber Valdez. / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Framber Valdez will get the start for the Houston Astros in Game 5 of the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox. Valdez had a pretty tidy regular season, finishing with a 3.16 ERA in 22 starts. Things have taken a bit of a downturn since the calendar turned to October, however. 

In his two starts this postseason, Valdez surrendered 13 hits and seven runs in just seven innings pitched. He struck out eight while walking four. In Game 1 of the series, the Sox jumped all over Valdez and had him taking an early exit in the second inning. 

The question now remains. Can the lefty get back into his regular-season form? Or, will he get beat up again early by this Red Sox team and exit stage left before getting much done?

Let’s take a look at some consensus odds and stats along with prop odds at WynnBET Sportsbook and try to make a few bucks on Valdez in Game 5. 

Best ALCS Game 5 Player Props for Framber Valdez

  • Framber Valdez UNDER 14.5 outs 
  • Framber Valdez OVER 3.5 strikeouts 
  • Framber Valdez OVER 0.5 HRs allowed

Framber Valdez UNDER 14.5 outs 

Unlike his counterpart in this game, Chris Sale, Valdez has not struggled this season to remain in games into or past the 6th inning. While I wouldn’t go so far as to say he is a horse who can just go and go, Valdez has only three starts this year in which he failed to reach the fifth inning. Two of those starts came in the last two weeks while the other back in August. 

All of this is to say that my under bet here is less of a judgment on Valdez and more of an indication of how this series has been going. 

Hitters on both teams have been on fire with three out of the four games so far hitting double digits. The fourth ended with nine runs scored. While I think Valdez is capable, pitchers have been getting pulled early all series and I think that trend continues. These teams are trying hard to manage their arms for a possible World Series run and Valdez will fall into that list. Especially if his struggles continue tonight. 

Framber Valdez OVER 3.5 strikeouts 

Despite my lack of faith in Valdez sticking around long in this game, I think he does go over this strikeout total. Even in his first postseason action of this season, a 4 ⅓ inning start against the White Sox, Valdez managed six strikeouts in limited work. He also gave up four earned runs, which tells me even when he is off, he can still strike guys out.

Innings aside, Valdez has failed to go over this total just three times since August and I don’t see tonight being his fourth. 

WynnBET has this number posted at +115 for the OVER.

Framber Valdez OVER 0.5 HRs allowed

Rounding out our prop bets on Valdez is whether or not he coughs up a home run tonight. While Valdez is known as more of a ground ball pitcher, there is so much talent on the Red Sox that it almost doesn’t matter. There is enough firepower in the lineup that any ill-timed slip-up can result in your last pitch ending up in the bleachers. 

The Red Sox, during the regular season, ranked sixth in the MLB with an average of 1.40 home runs per game. The Red Sox also hit lefties a little better on average, with a 264 BA vs LHP and a .260 BA vs RHP. The home run numbers are also very similar, telling me that the Red Sox can rake from either side of the batters’ box. That trend has continued into the postseason where the Sox are hitting .333 against lefties and .292 against righties. 

This is less of a condemnation of Valdez as it is a bet on the Red Sox offense. Somebody will hit a home run against this team tonight and, being the starter, Valdez is the most likely choice of victims. 

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