The San Francisco 49ers beat the crap out of the Los Angeles Rams when these teams played in early November, leading wire-to-write in a 31-10 home victory. With the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs on the line for the Rams in this game, plus some new additions to their team, I see a much different game here.
The Rams are -3.5 point favorites at WynnBET and -190 on the moneyline (which team will win the game outright) against +155 for the 49ers. The over/under (total points scored combined by both teams) is set at 45.0 points, suggesting a low-scoring affair. I'd lean Rams on this one.
If you don't want to bet any of those, however, here are three prop bets I also like.
Best Prop Bets for 49ers vs Rams
- 49ers Under 9.5 Points in First Half (+100)
- Matt Stafford Under 24.5 Passing Completions (-115)
- Sony Michel Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
49ers Under 9.5 (+100)
Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to play this week after missing last week's game with a sprained thumb, which, according to Garoppolo, hurts like hell when he throws. Not great. Throw in the fact that the 49ers haven't scored over 10 points in the first half of the last five games Garoppolo started and I like this bet at even odds.
Would I like it more at 10.5? Yes. But that's not what's offered. I'm guessing Garoppolo and the Niners have a slow start as the Rams make up for their embarrassing lost to San Fran a few weeks ago and clinch home field.
Matt Stafford Under 24.5 Passing Completions (-115)
Stafford hasn't completed over 25 passes in four of the Rams last six games and typically only goes over that mark in games their trailing. I'm expecting the Rams to get out to an early lead in this game and Vegas agrees, setting the Rams first-half moneyline at (-150) and setting the Rams first-half O/U at 13.5 points, four point more than the 49ers. If that's the case, expect L.A. to give Sony Michel a ton of carries, which leads to...
Sony Michel Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Since taking over as the Rams top back five games ago, Michel has gone over this number every game. Cam Akers is expected to return to the Rams lineup this week, which may take a few carries away from Michel. But I still believe Michel will get enough volume to get over this number.
It's true, the 49ers have a strong run defense, giving up 106 yards per game, eighth-best in the NFL. But Michel has cleared this number by at least 10 yards in each of the last five games and I don't see Akers eating into his careers enough to make up that difference.