We've already handed out a prediction, bold predictions and a "home run derby" roundtable for who leaves the yard tonight in Game 4 of the World Series, so let's add some newly released prop bets to the mix as well!
The matchup should be another fascinating one, with Atlanta just tiny favorites at -108 odds at home in Game 4 against Houston (-102). The total comes in at 8.5, with the over a favorite at -115 compared to the under of -105.
Right-hander Zach Greinke gets the start for the Astros against rookie left-hander Dylan Lee. Grienke has pitched 21 times in the postseason. Lee has 2.2 postseason innings.
How will their matchup fare and where are the prop betting advantages we can find? Let's dive in with all odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Prop Bets for Astros at Braves
- Martin Maldonado UNDER 0.5 Hits (-120)
- Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+465)
- First Five Innings OVER 4 Total Runs (-125)
Martin Maldonado UNDER 0.5 Hits (-120)
I liked Maldonado back in Game 2 against Max Fried considering his positive splits against left-handed pitching, but Dylan Lee may not even be in the game when he faces him in the 9-spot. From that point, we may see more mixing and matching, as well as more right-handed pitchers coming in from the bullpen.
Meanwhile, Maldonado hasn't hit the cover off the ball this postseason, hitting 1 for 8 with 3 strikeouts so far in the World Series. For a career .212 hitter, I'll side with no hits in 3-4 at-bats vs. trying to get lucky.
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+465)
This is, literally, a swing-for-the-fences prop that I wrote in further detail in our "Home Run Derby" article here at BetSided, but I like Freeman's experience against Greinke combined with the Astros starting pitcher giving up a career high for most home runs in a season in 2021.
Freeman has taken three walks already in the World Series and has one of the best eyes for bad pitches in the game. He's been waiting for a mistake by the Astros pitchers and hasn't taken advantage yet, but I think that could change tonight.
First Five Innings OVER 4 Total Runs (-125)
After a 2-0 shutout in Game 3, I expect both teams' offenses to get back on track in Game 4 with a struggling Greinke, and an opener in left-hander Dylan Lee who makes his first career start in the postseason tonight.
The Astros ranked fourth in OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season and with the volatile nature of both teams' pitching staffs right now, getting over 4 runs early with a total of 8.5 shouldn't be too difficult. Especially with many changing parts and not facing the best bullpen arms, I think we'll see more runs earlier than later.