3 Best Prop Bets for Astros vs Mariners in NLDS Game 3 (Can Houston and Yordan Alvarez Put the Nail in the Coffin?)

Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29)
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) / John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros are the villain of the postseason and they are on the brink of taking out the Cinderella story, Seattle Mariners. The Mariners haven’t had a home playoff game since 2001 and the way Houston looks, they might not have a lot to cheer about today. The Astros have a chance to sweep the series with Lance McCulllers (4-2, 2.27 ERA) and the Mariners counter with a young team and a rookie starting pitcher, George Kirby (8-5, 3.39 ERA). 

Best Prop Bets for Astros vs. Mariners

  • Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
  • Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Home Runs (+480)
  • Jeremy Peña Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

Yordan Alvarez might be the scariest person on earth right now. If I was George Kirby today I wouldn’t throw a pitch within a foot and a half of the strike zone. Alvarez has a 1.931 OPS in the postseason with two homers and seven RBI. He only has one walk, but he might go over 1.5 total bases on intentional walks today. 

Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Home Runs (+480)

Lance McCullers Jr. throws 50% breaking pitches and one thing that Raleigh has done really well this year is hit breaking stuff and hit it hard. His batting average is low, but he is slugging .541 off breaking pitches with 10 of home runs off breaking pitches and 6 against offspeed stuff. That means a majority of his home runs are not off just hunting a fastball and he won’t see many fastballs against McCullers. 

Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)

Peña is in a perfect spot in this lineup, just behind Jose Altuve and in front of Yordan Alvarez. That means he is going to see pitches from Kirby and the Mariners bullpen. He has a .944 OPS so far in their two games this postseason with three hits and a walk. I just think Alvarez is such a threat behind him that Kirby can’t afford to nibble on the edges and risk putting him on base. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change