Betsided

3 Best Prop Bets for Rams vs Bucs (Fade Tom Brady and Cam Akers)

By Brian Giuffra

Can Tom Brady hit his passing prop?
Can Tom Brady hit his passing prop? / Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
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While this morning's news ticker is focused on Tom Brady possibly retiring after this season, my focus is on making a few bucks back after that Packers loss last night. Yeah, I had the Packers and feel very motivated to pick some winners today. So let's get to it.

I'm leaning Bucs -2.5 on the spread today, but also have a few thoughts on the prop market over at WynnBET Sportsbook. The total is set at 48 points, which is an important element to consider when picking props. Here are the ones I like today.

Best Prop Bets for Rams vs Bucs

  • Cam Akers Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Matthew Stafford Over 37.5 Passing Attempts (+100)
  • Tom Brady Under 289.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Cam Akers Under 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Akers returned from a torn Achilles and looked solid in the Rams win over the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs. He turned 17 rushes into 55 yards and also had a big catch for 40 yards. But the Bucs aren't the Cardinals and I don't see the Rams trying to bang their head on the toughest part of the Bucs' D.

Tampa Bay allowed 92.7 rushing yards per game this season, third-best in the NFL. Opponents only rush the ball 21.3 times per game on average against them, lowest in the NFL. That's because Bucs DT Vita Via is an absolute wrecker in the middle of the line. I see him doing the same in this game and the Rams trying to attack the Bucs through the air. Speaking of which...

Matthew Stafford Over 37.5 Passing Attempts (+100)

The Rams would like to avoid this number considering they've gone 3-4 in games where Stafford has thrown the ball 38 or more times. However, that's the exact number of times Stafford threw the ball against the Bucs in their win earlier this season and I expect them to try to exploit the Bucs weaker pass defense as most of the NFL has.

This season, the Bucs' opponents have averaged 40.2 passing attempts per game, the most in the NFL. A big reason for that is most opponents are typically trailing the Bucs. The other reason is the Bucs pass defense has been banged up all season and there's more of an opportunity to succeed against them in the pass than the rush. I also like the even-money payout here.

Tom Brady Under 289.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Although the Rams are more susceptible against the run than pass, their defense is much more dangerous against the pass than run, forcing 19 interceptions against just 16 touchdown receptions. With Mike Evans likely getting blanked by Jalen Ramsey, I don't see Brady trying to test the Rams secondary at a high rate with Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller. The Rams are also solid defending the tight end, making Rob Grokowski's involvement less valuable as well.

This is a dangerous number. Brady has eclipsed it 10 times this year, including throwing for over 400 in the Bucs game against the Rams earlier this year. But that was a loss. To win, the Bucs need to control the line of scrimmage. The means going downhill. That's how I see this game playing out.

The BetSided crew of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot and Iain MacMillan power ranked their favorite bets of the NFL Divisional Round on a new episode of "Bet & Breakfast."

Check out their favorite bets for Sunday's slate of games HERE!

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