The Green Bay Packers enter Thursday Night Football against the Arizona Cardinals down one of their most important weapons, Davante Adams. However, the team will still have star running back Aaron Jones at their disposal.
Aaron Jones Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Down Adams and Allen Lazard, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is going to need to look to his running back in the passing game.
Jones is a frequent target of Rodgers, receiving five or more targets in five of seven games this season, and given the context of the matchup, I expect him to see an inflated target share.
Considering the Packers are 6.5-point underdogs, Rodgers is likely going to be passing, and I believe Jones will be able to clear this total early on.
Aaron Jones First Touchdown Scorer (+600)
With the spread shifting in the Cardinals favor so much, we can get value on the them to score first. While Adams is usually Rodgers goal line target, I think it'll be Jones on Thursday Night Football.
With a limited receiving corps, I expect coach Matt LaFleur to use his bell cow back to punch one in. The Packers offense can still operate well, and I'm going to take a shot on inflated odds on the team's most likely player to find pay dirt.
For what it's worth, I'm also a fan of playing Jones -120 anytime touchdown scorer. The total is 50 for this game, so points are expected, and Jones is being undervalued to find the end zone in both first touchdown and anytime touchdown markets.
Aaron Jones UNDER 14.5 Carries (-125)
It's a bit pricey, but the game script sets up for a high volume of passes from Rodgers, so I'm willing to pay for this a bit. Jones has not carried the ball more than a15 times in the past three games, including just six last week against the Washington Football Team.
When the Packers get close to the end zone, I expect Jones will take over, but ultimately this is going to fall on Rodgers' arm for most of the game. I'll try and thread the needle and take the under on carries.