3 Bold Predictions for Jazz-Clippers Game 4
By Peter Dewey
One Western Conference Finals berth has been secured after the Phoenix Suns swept the Denver Nuggets on Sunday, and they will await the winner of the Los Angeles Clippers’ series with the Utah Jazz.
Tonight, Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers will try to defend home court once again in a pivotal Game 4. With a win, the Clippers would even the series with Utah.
After poor performances from Paul George and Marcus Morris doomed Los Angeles in Games 1 and 2, George bounced back for a 31-point performance in Game 3 to give the Clippers some hope.
Jazz star Donovan Mitchell suffered an ankle injury, although it doesn’t seem serious, in the loss, and Utah can’t afford to lose another guard with Mike Conley already sidelined with a hamstring injury.
WynnBET has the Clippers as five-point favorites in this one, but Los Angeles hasn’t been great as a frontrunner over the past couple seasons. Still, the Clippers have won their last two playoff home games heading into Game 4.
While Leonard and Mitchell get most of the headlines, there are a few intriguing player props tonight that involve some secondary players on these teams. Here are some bold predictions for tonight’s matchup:
Reggie Jackson Goes Over 14.5 Points
Reggie Jackson has been everything the Clippers could ask for this postseason, as the veteran guard has been a spark plug since head coach Ty Lue moved him into the starting lineup in Game 3 against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round.
Jackson has scored less than 15 points just two times all postseason, and they both came in Game 1 of the Clippers’ respective series. Jackson fouled out in Game 1 against Utah, but he rebounded with a 29-point showing in Game 2 and then had an efficient 17 points (6-of-8 shooting, 5-for-6 from 3) in the Clippers’ blowout win in Game 3.
WynnBET has the over on Jackson's 14.5 point projection set at -108 odds, which is an underdog to the under at -112. Jackson is averaging 30.2 minutes per game since being inserted into the starting lineup and he’s shot 51.0 percent from the field on 12.3 shots per night.
As long as his usage stays the same, Jackson is a great bet to once again hit the over. Rajon Rondo is out of the rotation at the moment, and Jackson has certainly outplayed Patrick Beverley in the playoffs.
I’d expect Lue to continue to run with the hot hand in Game 4, and if Conley is out again, Jackson should continue to have his way against the Utah backcourt.
Royce O’Neale Hits Over 1.5 3-Pointers
Without Conley, Utah’s role players have stepped up in a big way to get the Jazz out to a 2-1 lead in the series.
O’Neale is certainly one of them, and the veteran swingman has been logging major minutes (35.5 per game) this postseason. WynnBET has O’Neale’s player prop for 3-pointers set at 1.5 on Monday, but the over (+100) is the underdog to the under (-130).
O’Neale is coming off a 4-for-8 performance from beyond the arc in Game 3, but Vegas doesn’t seem to have much confidence in him to replicate that in Game 4.
This postseason, O’Neale is shooting 47.6 percent from 3 and has made 2.5 of his 5.3 attempts per game. The lower line is likely due to his 1-for-6 start from 3 in the series with the Clippers, but O’Neale appears to have found his shot again after Game 3.
In eight postseason Games, O’Neale has hit three or more shots from downtown in five of them. When you consider that, and his heavy workload, over 1.5 3-balls at plus odds looks like a great bet.
Ivica Zubac Goes Under 4.5 Points
Zubac has underwhelmed this postseason, and while the Jazz have center Rudy Gobert, the Clippers have found that they don’t need to match up size wise to compete.
In the Clippers’ 10 playoff games, they are 5-1 when Zubac plays less than 18 minutes and 0-4 when he plays over 18 minutes.
It’s clear the Clippers are at their best with a smaller lineup on the floor, and Lue has deployed that lineup in the last two games of the series. Zubac has scored over 4.5 points in half of the games this postseason, but as his role diminishes, I think his scoring will as well.
Even in the Clippers’ blowout win in Game 3, Zubac saw the floor for just 13:02 and scored three points on 1-of-4 shooting. He hasn’t attempted over five shots in a game this postseason, and I can’t see a scenario where the Clippers leave him in for an extended period of time unless they go up big late in the game.
Gobert’s defensive ability and Zubac’s limitations on offense are the perfect storm, and at +100 odds, I think the under is the bet to make on Zubac’s points prop.