3 Bold Predictions for Patrick Mahomes vs. Broncos on Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football features one of the most dynamic players in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes. But, Mahomes has struggled quite a bit this year when compared with his past campaigns. He has not looked like a guy who has both an NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP before the age of 25. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are back on track but the Denver Broncos are a solid defense that can give Mahomes some problems. Let’s dive into the prop odds for this matchup courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Bold Predictions for Patrick Mahomes vs Denver Broncos

• Patrick Mahomes OVER 18.5 rushing yards  (-125)
• Patrick Mahomes UNDER 287.5 passing yards (-115)
• Patrick Mahomes OVER 36.5 passing attempts (-115)

Patrick Mahomes OVER 18.5 rushing yards  (-125)

Mahomes might have seen his share of struggles in the passing game, 2021 has been his best season on the ground. Mahomes has 236 yards in 11 games and is gaining 5.4 yards per rush. So far this season, Mahomes has gone over 18.5 yards rushing in six games. 

Denver’s defense is pretty average at stopping the run, but what they are very good at is sacking opposing quarterbacks. Denver ranks eighth in the league with a 6.77 sack percentage. And while this isn’t good for the Chiefs, I’m hoping that Mahomes is pushed out of the pocket enough to rack up the yards needed to cash this bet. The Broncos are in the bottom half of the league in terms of giving up rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks with 200 total. That works out to be an average of 18.2 yards per game. 

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 287.5 passing yards (-115)

The Kansas City Chiefs have looked more like the team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Mahomes, however, is not back to playing like the MVP candidate he was preseason. His completion percentage is his worst since his single start during his rookie season. His average yards per pass is a full yard less than it was last year and is also a career-low mark. He already has more interceptions this season than three of his four previous campaigns. So, while Mahomes is an incredible talent, he needs to show it more for me to trust him. Plus, he’s only gone over his passing yard prop in three games this season. 

Mahomes has gone over this total just four times this season. Two of those games were to open the year and the last was a 406-yard performance against the Raiders. The Broncos currently rank eighth in passing yards allowed and second in opponent completion percentage at 56.60. 

Patrick Mahomes OVER 36.5 passing attempts (-115)

While I don’t think Mahomes goes over his passing yards total, it won’t be for lack of trying. One thing that he has done consistently all season is passing the ball often. He has only three games all year that would have fallen under this total with two games falling just one pass shy. The last time he failed to pass for at least 36 attempts was five weeks ago in the Chiefs’ loss to the Titans.