3 Important Stats to Know Ahead of Game 5 of the NBA Finals

The NBA Finals is now a best-of-three series between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns after both teams took care of business at home through the first four games. 

WynnBET has the Suns as a four-point favorite in Game 5 in Phoenix with -175 odds on the moneyline. The Bucks are +155 underdogs on the moneyline and still +125 to win the series after winning Games 3 and 4. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo has jumped Chris Paul in the NBA Finals MVP standings and has clearly looked like the best player in the series. 

However, Suns head coach Monty Williams pointed out after Game 4 that Phoenix has been beating itself, and when you take a look at some of the stats, he isn’t wrong.

The Suns are certainly hoping that a little home cooking gets them back on track. Our Ben Heisler already broke down how the Suns’s free throw shooting has hurt them in the past two games, but here are three more key stats from the series you should know before betting on Game 5:

Suns’ Turnovers Are Keeping Bucks in Games 

In Games 3 and 4, the Suns turned the ball over a whopping 32 times, including nine times from Chris Paul, while the Bucks committed just 14 turnovers. 

That is a huge discrepancy, and it has cost the Suns even though they’ve shot the ball fairly well. Phoenix became the first team in playoff history to lose a game while shooting over 50 percent from the field and holding their opponents to less than 42% shooting in Game 4.

That’s a major issue, as the Suns have essentially cost themselves a chance to win games by being too sloppy with the basketball. On top of that, it took Phoenix shooting 20-for-40 from 3-point range in Game 2 to win, which certainly doesn’t bode well for them in Game 5.

The Suns have shot just 16-for-54 from deep since Game 2, signaling that it is unlikely that they’ll ever have such a strong shooting performance. If the turnover battle stays in favor of the Bucks going forward, don’t be surprised if they win four straight to take the series. 

Milwaukee Continues to Dominate Rebound Battle

I’ve been writing about the Bucks’ dominance on the glass extensively this series, and it continued in Game 4 with them out rebounding Phoenix by eight even though Deandre Ayton played 39 minutes. 

Milwaukee now has a 188-162 edge on the glass in the series, but the discrepancy is even more jarring when you look at offensive rebounding. The Bucks have 57 offensive rebounds to Phoenix’s 28 in the series, and it’s led to Milwaukee winning the second-chance points battle 65-35 in the series. 

Easy baskets, whether they’re off of turnovers, at the line, in the paint (Milwaukee leads 198-152) or on second chances, have been key for the Bucks in the past two games. 

The Suns aren’t going to fix their size disadvantage over night, but Williams and company need to find something to give the Suns the advantage, because Paul and Devin Booker haven’t been consistent enough for the Suns to rely on them winning games with iso ball and shot making. 

Favorites are 4-0 Against the Spread in the Finals

The Bucks’ late surge in the fourth quarter in Game 4 allowed them to cover the spread making the home favorite 4-0 in the NBA Finals against the spread. 

Phoenix is opening as a four-point favorite in Game 5, and it falls in the sweet spot as teams that are favored between 3.5 and 6.0 points this postseason are a combined 26-8 against the spread. 

That’s great news if you’re a Suns fan, but it’s even better news for bettors as they won’t have to take the -175 juice on the moneyline for the Suns to win. The line could certainly move by Saturday’s matchup, but the Suns seem like the play from the standpoint of this trend. 

That being said, if they don’t take care of the first two statistics raised, there’s a chance they will be the one to break the trend in the NBA Finals.

Who do you think wins Game 5? Download the WynnBET app in New Jersey, Indiana or Colorado and find out how to bet.