3 Long Shot 2025 Super Bowl Winner Bets to Consider (Can Cleveland Win it All?)

Looking at the three best long shot picks to win Super Bowl 59.

Dec 28, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore (8) celebrates with tight end David Njoku (85).
Dec 28, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore (8) celebrates with tight end David Njoku (85). / Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

You can close the book on the 2023-24 NFL season as the focus shifts on offseason moves and the NFL Draft this spring. We’re one year away from Super Bowl 59 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, but it’s not too early to take a look at some longshot picks to win next year’s Lombardi Trophy.

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Super Bowl 59 odds

Houston Texans (+2500)

Yes, Houston will be a popular dark horse pick in the NFL Futures market, but it's for good reason. Houston's climb from NFL bottom feeder to playoff team was quicker than expected behind NFL Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and NFL Coach of the Year runner-up DeMeco Ryans.

Led by Stroud, the Texans had a high-flying offense that helped Houston leapfrog the Jacksonville Jaguars for an AFC South title. Stroud was no deer in the headlines on the biggest stage, defeating the Cleveland Browns in the first round of the AFC playoffs before being eliminated in blowout fashion against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round.

Offensively, Houston will still be under the direction of coordinator Bobby Slowik, who is returning to the Texans despite interviewing for five head coaching jobs. It's also fair to predict Stroud takes a year-two jump, just like Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy, who each went to the Super Bowl in their respective season.

Houston should improve in both the draft and in free agency as they look to turn last season's playoff trip into sustained success. With this pick, you're also favored to at least get a ticket to the dance.

Despite being 25-to-1, Houston is the odds-on favorite in the AFC South with long odds for the Jaguars (+3000), Indianapolis Colts (+5000) and Tennessee Titans (+15000).

Los Angeles Rams (+3000)

The Los Angeles Rams were only projected to win 6.5 games last season and, after a 3-6 record heading into the mid-November bye week, it looked like they'd go under that total.

However, experience matters and led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay, the Rams won seven of their final eight games to reach the postseason. The Rams came up short in the first round of the NFC playoffs, falling to the Detroit Lions by a point on the road, but that core is returning next season.

Stafford still has elite weapons around him in Cooper Kupp, record-setting receiver Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams, who was one of the anchors of the team's turnaround once he returned from injury, rushing for 1,144 yards and a dozen touchdowns.

The Rams are only two years removed from hoisting a Lombardi Trophy and should always be in consideration with their championship pedigree.

Cleveland Browns (+4500)

The Browns already have a championship-level defense. It's a unit that ranked No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed and against the pass. The Browns were also 11th against the run and 13th in scoring. All were good enough numbers for Cleveland to earn one of the top seeds in the AFC and potentially make a postseason run, but the quarterback play wasn't good enough.

The Browns started five different quarterbacks in 2023, dubiously adding to the infamous laundry list of starting signal-callers since they returned to the NFL in 1999.

Opening day starter Deshaun Watson wasn't good enough, throwing for just 1,115 yards and 7 touchdowns in six games before needing season-ending shoulder surgery.

The duo of P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson wasn't good enough to get it done (two touchdowns, nine interceptions).

The Browns found lightning in a bottle with free-agent aquisition Joe Flacco, who led Cleveland to the playoffs and was named Comeback Player of the Year. But Flacco did throw 8 interceptions in five games and his two pick-sixes in the playoffs against Houston were backbreaking turnovers.

With the contract Watson has, he's going to be under center next season, presumably at full strength. Watson has shown nothing but rust in 12 games over the last two seasons in Cleveland, but it's not crazy to think he can figure it out and return to the form that made him a three-time Pro-Bowler in Houston.

The Browns have a Super Bowl-level defense, a two-time NFL Coach of the Year in Kevin Stefanski, a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey and are worth a look as a Super Bowl long shot.

Odds update periodically and are subject to change.