3 MLB Longshots Who Can Win the World Series
While the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros have separated from the pack in establishing themselves as the top World Series favorites, that doesn't mean they'll be hoisting the trophy at the end of the season. In fact, there's plenty of value deeper in the odds list, which is what we're focused on today.
With the second half of the season officially underway for every team starting today, let's look at a few longshots who have the talent to win the World Series. The MLB trade deadline will also play a role in who we ultimately feel fits the role of underdog, but for now, here are a few teams to consider sprinkling some future bets on.
Darkhorse MLB World Series Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals +3000
The Cardinals are my top dark horse team to win the World Series this year because they combine consistent hitting and pitching, hallmarks of a boring/overlookable regular season, but impossible-to-ignore attributes come playoff time.
They rank fifth in runs scored, fifth in stolen bases, sixth in hits, sixth in OBS+ and ninth in runs scored per game in MLB. On the mound, they're seventh in runs allowed and ninth in team ERA.
They're a half game behind the Brewers in the division race, but I see St. Louis winning the Central. They'll likely then have to face the Dodgers in the division round, but in a five-game series anything can happen. It reminds me of the Braves last year. Get into the playoffs with the worst record of any division winner and then get hot at the right time. That could be the Cardinals this year.
Tampa Bay Rays +2500
This is all about value and the potential for a team no one is talking about -- what else is new for the Rays. Tampa Bay has one of the best pitching units in baseball, ranking Top 5 in Team ERA, hits allowed, hits per at-bat, OBP and several other categories. Their bullpen is quite as elite, but they do rank inside the Top 10 in WHIP, ERA and strike outs.
That's a recipe for upsets in October.
The team's hitting is middle-of-the-pack in most categories, but that's not how they are going to win in the postseason. Kevin Cash will need his starters to remain dominant and hope some free-swinging teams go cold in the fall. There's certainly some risk to betting them given they'll have to win from a Wild Card spot, but their pitching gives me reason to believe they can make some noise.
San Diego Padres +1500
Now 10.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, and only three games above the Giants, it's pretty clear the Padres will need to come through the Wild Card to win it all. But the talent is there and, based on recent history, so too is a willingness to deal at the deadline to improve this team.
With Manny Machado anchoring their lineup and a solid one-two punch of Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish headlining their starting pitching, the Padres have the talent to go on a run if they get hot at the right time.
Fernando Tatis' injury still looms over this team, and his return from a broken wrist suffered in March remains questionable. But they are the sixth-ranked team in MLB in defensive efficiency, have a Top 10 team ERA and a strong closer in Taylor Rogers. It's all a matter of what they do at the deadline and whether Tatis returns this year. Wait for clarity there before betting on them, but they have the tools to make a run.