3 MLB teams to bet to make the playoffs during the All-Star break (Can't quit the Padres)
By Josh Yourish
It’s the unofficial halfway mark of the MLB season and there is a long way to go to the finish line.
There have been some big disappointments in the first half of the year, but that could mean there are some big opportunities to find value on to make the playoffs bets.
With wide open races in both Central divisions and high priced teams underachieving there are betting opportunities, and I’m going to give you my three favorite teams to bet to make the playoffs at the MLB All-Star break.
Let’s get into the odds.
3 MLB teams to bet to make the playoffs
- Minnesota Twins -145
- San Diego Padres +300
- Chicago Cubs +650
Minnesota Twins -145
The AL Central is the worst division in baseball. It’s an absolute disaster and the Cleveland Guardians lead it at 45-45 and the Twins are a half game back at 45-46.
For the past few years, Cleveland has been in control of this division because of its starting pitching, but this year, Minnesota has the best starting staff in the division and honestly maybe the best rotation in the MLB.
Sonny Gray has had a phenomenal start to the year, as has Bailey Ober, but Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan have even better analytics like expected ERA and by those numbers are two of the best starters in baseball.
Kenta Maeda has been struggling and has dealt with injuries, but is still a viable fifth starter.
That is the strength of the team and it’s better than any other strength of any other team in the division. Minnesota is third in team ERA and 22nd in team OPS. The Guardians are eighth and 26th. The Twins have a +27 run differential and Cleveland is sitting at -7.
San Diego Padres +300
The Padres might be the biggest disappointment in the MLB.
It’s between them, the New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals. However, the season is a long way from over and this team just has so much talent.
San Diego is six games back of a Wild Card spot and have a +39 run differential despite its 43-47 record. The Padres' expected W/L is 49-41 which would have them tied with the San Francisco Giants for third in the NL West and the final Wild Card spot.
The problem here is that they will need to leapfrog the Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks while the Los Angeles Dodgers run away with the division again.
Yet, the Padres have better run differentials than both teams, Arizona is at +27 and San Francisco +31. Both have an xW/L with 48 wins.
I know that this team has problems. They aren’t fundamentally sound and have some poor decision making across the board.
They are 15th in OPS and sixth in team ERA. They are a bad team right now, but I am going to simply name players on this team and then I want you to tell me if that is a team that should make the playoffs.
Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Michael Wacha, Joe Musgrove and Josh Hader. I cannot quit them.
Chicago Cubs +650
The Cubs don’t quite have the names that the Padres do, but they are still in the mix in the National League.
However, the wild card actually feels like a longer shot than winning the NL Central. The Cincinnati Reds have emerged as one of the hottest teams in baseball, but the Pittsburgh Pirates led the National League at the end of April and that didn’t last either.
The Cubs are 42-47 which is good for third in the Central and puts them seven games back of the Reds. Chicago could end up being a seller, but it shouldn’t be.
This team has talent and a great 1-2 punch in their rotation with Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele. The Reds still have a run differential of -9 while the Cubs are at +26 with an expected W/L of 47-42.
That’s the best xW/L in the division. I like this bet at +650, but like getting them to win the division at +850 even better because that’s the team's only realistic route in.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change