3 MLB Teams Undervalued to Win their Division this Season
By Josh Yourish
The Midsummer Classic is tonight as the MLB’s best converge on Seattle’s T-Mobile Park for the MLB All-Star Game. It’s the unofficial halfway mark of the MLB season as the dog days of summer are really about to kick in. A lot can still happen between now and October, so let’s get into the divisional races and try to find some value.
There have been some big disappointments this year, the Padres, Mets and Cardinals all come to mind. There are also some wide open divisions like the AL and NL Central. All of that makes for some valuable division winner bets, so here are my three favorites at the All-Star break.
3 MLB teams to bet to win their division
- Minnesota Twins -140
- Baltimore Orioles +400
- Chicago Cubs +850
Minnesota Twins -140
It’s odd to say that a favorite is undervalued, especially when that team is in second place in their division, but that’s the case for the 45-46 Minnesota Twins. They are a half game behind Cleveland, but boast the best pitching staff in the division by a wide margin and it’s one of the best starting rotations in the league. Sonny Gray is 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 starts, Bailey Ober is 5-4 with a 2.61 ERA in 14 starts, Pablo Lopez is 5-5 with a 3.89 ERA in 18 starts, and in his 18 starts Joe Ryan is 8-6 with a 3.70 ERA.
Lopez and Ryan might actually be the best two in the rotation because they have logged the most innings and Lopez has an expected ERA of 3.04 which is 88th percentile in the league and Ryan is even better with an xERA of 2.88 which is 91st percentile. This is a lethal pitching staff and better than what Cleveland can roll out even with Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber. The Twins will start to run away with the division; it's only a matter of time.
Baltimore Orioles +400
There’s a funny little thing happening in the AL East right now. The Tampa Bay Rays looked like they were going to win 140 games this year and win the division by 45 games, but they have plummeted back to Earth since then. In May the Rays went 17-12 and in June they went 17-10. Baltimore went 16-12 in May and 13-11 in June. However, in July the Rays are 1-7 the worst record in baseball and the Orioles are a cool 6-3. They’ve hung around enough to capitalize on the inevitable slump and now the O’s are just two games behind the 58-35 Rays at 54-35.
Over the past 30 days, which is not an insignificant sample, the Rays are 22nd in team OPS and 12th in ERA. Meanwhile the Orioles are 12th in OPS and 14th in ERA. Neither team has been on a tear, but Baltimore is treading water much better than Tampa Bay. The Orioles also have reinforcements continually coming up including another top prospect, Jordan Westburg who recently joined the team. The O’s are loaded and are also in a better spot to make a deadline move. At just two games back the Orioles should not be at +400 that is great value.
Chicago Cubs +850
It looks like the Cincinnati Reds are running away with this division. In the last 30 days the Reds are 19-6, the second best record in the MLB over that stretch. At 50-41 the Reds have a one game lead on Milwaukee and a seven game lead over the third place Chicago Cubs. However, the Cubs might be the biggest threat to Cincy in the NL Central.
Chicago is 42-47, but in that 30 day stretch the Cubs also went 14-10 and their pitching staff was fourth in ERA at 3.56. The Cubs have a great 1-2 punch in their starting rotation with Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele who are both in Seattle for the All-Star Game. They also have some pop in their lineup with Patrick Wisdom, Dansby Swanson, and Cody Bellinger. Altogether this team has the best run differential in the division at +26 and their expected Win/Loss of 47-42 is also better than both Milwaukee and Cincinnati.
Chicago underachieved in the first half and even with the most exciting player in baseball, Elly De La Cruz on their team, the Reds will cool off after overachieving to close the first half. The Cubs might be a little too far out to win it, but +850 is outrageous value.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change