3 MLB Teams Who Are About to Get Hot (Giants, Phillies, Guardians With Value in Futures Market)

We're roughly a quarter of the way through the 2022 MLB season and the playoff race is starting to take shape. The New York Yankees and New York Mets have been the class of the American and National Leagues, but a number of teams are within striking distance in what is sure to be a highly competitive rest of the year.

A lovely thing about baseball is that there's a ton of information out there to help us make predictions and analyze everything happening in front of us. That data helps us make educated guesses as to how teams will perform moving forward. Maybe a team has been really lucky or unlucky and we can expect regression moving forward. Maybe not.

We've seen teams like Cincinnati and Boston suffer early-season slumps before going on a tear, and teams like the Colorado Rockies slow down after scorching starts.

I've taken a long look at the MLB futures market over at WynnBET Sportsbook, and there's a few teams I'm targeting moving forward that have underperformed based on their advanced metrics. Here are three teams I'm expecting a big rest of 2022 from:

3 MLB Teams Who Are About to Get Hot

San Francisco Giants

Listed at +1000 to win the National League and +2000 to win the World Series, the Giants have been incredibly unlucky. They sit at 22-19, six games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, but have an elite pitching staff and a lineup capable of doing damage.

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is a stat I like to use when measuring luck. Sometimes, the ball doesn't bounce your way, like last night when a ball that had a 1% chance of being a hit turned into a two-run Francisco Lindor double that led to a massive inning from the Mets.

Over the course of the season, these results tend to stabilize. Which is why the Giants are a screaming value thanks to opponents hitting a ridiculous .327 on balls in play, easily the worst mark in MLB. That's how Alex Cobb can hold a 6.25 ERA despite ranking in the 97th percentile in expected ERA.

Between Cobb, Carlos Rodon, and Logan Webb, the Giants have as good a rotation as anyone in baseball. All three rank in the top-25 of all pitchers in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which is more reliable than ERA.

San Francisco's bullpen is stout too, and they have a patient lineup that hammers left-handed pitchers and averages the second-most walks per game in the league.

Put it all together and you've got a team ready to make a run. I'm not sure if they need to start carrying four-leaf clovers around or visit a genie or something, but once their rotten luck subsides they'll be off to the races.

Philadelphia Phillies

With odds of +1200 to win the National League and +2500 to win the World Series, I'm buying all of the Phillies stock. They have four starting pitchers in the top-40 in FIP (Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, and Aaron Nola) and their offense is elite across the board.

The Phillies are 20-22 and eight games behind the New York Mets in the NL East, but TeamRankings.com indicates they've played the sixth-hardest schedule in baseball so far and have the second-easiest schedule remaining. Their opponents have hit .306 on balls in play, the fourth-best mark in the league, meaning we can expect some positive regression for the Phillies in that department as well.

As the Mets rotation continues to labor through injuries, there's ample time for Philadelphia to catch up and make a run to the postseason.

Once they get there, good luck stopping them. Their rotation can go toe-to-toe with any in baseball, and as we've repeatedly seen over the years, that matters a lot in the playoffs. Even if their pitchers falter, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, Jean Segura, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber make up one of the deadliest lineups in the sport. And oh yeah, there's this guy too:

Despite their injuries and struggles to open the year, Philadelphia still has the 11th-best run differential in MLB. Now is the perfect time to buy low on a team I could easily see winning the World Series.

Cleveland Guardians

Do I think the Guardians are likely to win the World Series or even make the postseason? Not really. But I do think they're easily the best value on the board in the American League. WynnBET has Cleveland listed at +4000 to win the AL Pennant and +8000 to win the World Series, and those odds just don't fall in line with their profile as a team.

The Guardians are 18-20 but just six games behind the Twins in the AL Central. Thanks to the Central being perhaps the worst division in baseball, Cleveland has one of the easiest remaining strength of schedules and plenty of time to catch Minnesota.

It's no secret that Cleveland's lineup has disappointed. They're dead-last in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitchers, but they're improving and they're still a top-five unit against righty's. The Guardians have overcome a lot already in this young season, including a COVID outbreak, and I expect better results moving forward from proven hitters like Franmil Reyes, Myles Straw and Jose Ramirez.

They were missing Josh Naylor to open the campaign as well and he's hitting .333 with six home runs since returning to the club. So their offense should improve, and I foresee an improvement from their pitching staff as well, bolstered by the emergence of Triston McKenzie.

McKenzie has a 2.05 ERA in May with four consecutive quality starts, none of which he allowed more than four hits in. Shane Bieber has been excellent of late and Cal Quantrill remains steady, giving the Guardians three strong rotation pieces to build from.

Defensively, they're one of the best in baseball. Cleveland has the fourth-most defensive runs saved in MLB, per FieldingBible, and that will help them keep their opponent's BABIP low.

Despite the early season turmoil, the Guardians still have the sixth-best run differential in the American League. They're well-ahead of the White Sox, who sit at +800 to win the American League compared to the gigantic +4000 number hanging on Cleveland.

After they wrap up this series with Houston, the Guardians will play 19 consecutive games against the Tigers, Royals, Orioles, Rangers, Athletics and Rockies. All of those teams are in the bottom-half of the league in run differential and Cleveland should take advantage of such a soft spot in the schedule.

Three weeks from now, I'd be stunned if odds this high are still available on the Guardians, making them a clear value worthy of our attention.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.