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3 NBA Christmas Day Betting Trends You Need to Know

By Ben Heisler

Christmas Day games are an annual staple in the NBA, so get ready to bet to your heart's content with three of the most notable betting trends.
Christmas Day games are an annual staple in the NBA, so get ready to bet to your heart's content with three of the most notable betting trends. / Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
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Christmas Day NBA action is just around the corner, and while the Saturday slate of all-day games feel a tad more normal than during the week, there are still plenty of insights and trends collected over the years that are worth our attention as bettors.

Let's take a look at the full slate of games, with all updated odds available at WynnBET Sportsbook:

NBA Christmas Day Game Schedule

  • Hawks vs. Knicks: 12 pm ET - ESPN
  • Celtics vs. Bucks: 2:30 pm ET - ABC
  • Warriors vs. Suns: 5 pm ET - ABC
  • Nets vs. Lakers: 8 pm ET - ABC/ESPN
  • Mavericks vs. Jazz: 10:30 pm ET - ESPN

Here are three of the most notable NBA Christmas Day betting trends worth considering before you place your wagers.

Unders on Christmas Day are 35-20-1 since 2005

According to the good folks at BetLabs, if you bet the under on every Christmas Day game over the past 16 years, you'd be covering right near 64% of the time!

Credit Action Network's Mark Gallant for taking a deep dive into this trend, as he discovered that not only were unders the sharp NBA bet over the last decade and a half on December 25 games, but notably the early games tend to hit most often. In games that started between noon and 5:30 pm ET, unders have gone 26-9 ATS; hitting at an jaw-dropping 74.3%.

If you're concerned that the trend isn't applicable to this year's slate; consider this.

Of all 10 teams in action on Christmas Day, six of them are in the top 11 for the highest UNDER percentage this season.

  • Golden State Warriors: 70%
  • Dallas Mavericks: 66.7%
  • Milwaukee Bucks: 62.5%
  • Brooklyn Nets: 56.7%
  • Phoenix Suns: 55.2%
  • New York Knicks: 54.8%

Fade the Public on Defending NBA Champions

Since 2008, the team that lifted the Larry O'Brien trophy at the end of the postseason has struggled both straight-up, as well as against the spread on Christmas Day.

In that time, defending champions are just 6-7 overall on Christmas, and 4-9 ATS over the last 13 games.

LeBron James and the Lakers bucked the trend last season on December 25th as the defending champs; pounding Luka Doncic and the Mavericks 138-115. That was also the game James became the second-leading scorer on Christmas Day history as he passed Oscar Robertson. He now trails Kobe Bryant by 12 points for the all-time record.

Can the Bucks make it two consecutive years that the reigning champs cover on Christmas?

Take The Hawks, Suns to Cover the Spread in the 1st Quarter

Ok, so maybe it's not a specific "Christmas" trend, but it is still a notable betting opportunity to take advantage of throughout the day on Christmas.

The two worst first quarter teams against the spread this season have been the Knicks and the Warriors. New York is 10-20 ATS overall in the first, and a stunning 3-12 vs. the number at home. The Warriors, inexplicably, are just 11-19 ATS in first quarters despite their 25-6 overall record, and are as bad as the Knicks away from the Chase Center during that period: 3-11 ATS through 14 games.

While neither the Hawks or Suns are elite in the first 12 minutes, they've put up a far greater fight compared to their opponents. Atlanta is 15-14 ATS in first quarters this season, 7-7 on the road. The Suns own the sixth-best ATS record in the NBA this year covering in first quarters: 16-12-1 overall and 8-7-1 at home.

With public bettors likely eager to flock towards New York and Golden State, I'd advise bettors to wait until close to tip-off before jumping on these final numbers.

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