Betsided

3 NFL Best Bets for Ravens vs. Chiefs in NFL Week 1 (Ride With 2 Solid Defenses Thursday)

Three best bets to consider when the NFL kicks off Thursday at Arrowhead Stadium. 

By Shelby Dermer

Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws the ball around Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) while being sacked by Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) during the first half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws the ball around Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie (22) while being sacked by Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) during the first half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports / geoff burke-usa today sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The long wait is nearly over. 

In just two days, the 2024 NFL Season will kick off in a banner night at Arrowhead Stadium when the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens. 

In a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game in Baltimore, the Chiefs are a 3-point favorite with a total of 46.5 points.

Here are three best bets to consider on opening night. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

3 NFL Best Bets for Ravens vs. Chiefs in NFL Week 1

  • Ravens-Chiefs UNDER 46.5 Points 
  • Ravens 1st Quarter +0.5
  • Ravens Team Total Under 21.5 Points

Ravens vs. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 Points (-112)

The under has been steamed down from 48.5 when the line was first released in the summer. There’s still time to get in on the under, though. These two teams are highlighted by the last two MVPs in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, but these defenses are a big reason these two teams met in a competitive AFC Championship Game just eight months ago.

Kansas City ranked No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed per game last season while Baltimore ranked 6th. These were also the top two defenses in terms of scoring with Baltimore leading the league (16.5 points per game allowed) while Kansas City was No. 2 at 17.3 points. 

When these two teams met in the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs completely stymied the Ravens’ high-powered offense, yielding just a first-quarter touchdown and a field goal late. Kansas City kept Jackson from killing them with his legs (8 carries, 54 yards) while the Ravens completely abandoned the run thanks to a double-digit deficit.

On the other side, Kansas City started off hot, but the Ravens pitched a second-half shutout while the Chiefs managed just 89 rushing yards on 32 total attempts. 

Ravens 1st Quarter +0.5 (-135)

If there’s a team that won’t be blinded by the bright lights and the glitz and glamor of a Super Bowl celebration, it’s John Harbaugh’s group, which is out for revenge.

That revenge factor could show in the opening quarter, which was part of Baltimore’s formula to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC last season. 

The Ravens led the AFC (third in the NFL behind Dallas and Detroit) in first-quarter points per game (6.1) last season. On the other side, Kansas CIty was 15th in first-quarter scoring as even Mahomes wasn’t immune to stagnant starts. Baltimore was also second in the NFL in first-quarter points allowed (3) per game. 

Last season, the Ravens scored a touchdown in the first quarter of the AFC title game against Kansas City. Also, the Chiefs were down 7-0 in the first quarter of last year’s game against the Lions on opening night before taking a 14-7 lead into halftime. 

Ravens Team Total UNDER 21.5 Points (-105)

For starters, this will be a new-look Baltimore offense with Derrick Henry entering the fold. However, the Ravens are going through a rebuild up front with three new offensive linemen in Andrew Vorhees, Daniel Faalele and Patrick Mekari.

Mekari, the right tackle, has started 36 career games in five easons. Faalele is starting a new position at right guard and Vorhees will be making his NFL debut after missing all of his rookie year with a knee injury. 

The Chiefs were able to retain key pieces on defense like Chris Jones and linebacker Drue Tranquill. Led by Jones, the Kansas City defensive line should be able to cause problems with the new-look Ravens’ offensive line in the early stages of gelling together. 

Paired with Baltimore’s defense, we should be in for a low-scoring affair on Thursday and the Chiefs’ team total under 24.5 (currently -125) should also be considered.

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change. 

Home/NFL Picks