3 NFL Team Win Totals to Bet in the 2024 Season (Browns, Eagles Primed to Go OVER?)
With preseason football just a couple months away, it's time to dig into the regular season schedules and look at some win totals for the 2024 campaign.
Here are a few teams that I'm targeting this offseason:
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cleveland Browns OVER 8.5 Wins (-135)
We talked about the Browns in our article regarding playoff futures, and this discussion is quite similar; if you think a team is going to make the playoffs, you had better believe in them to win nine games at the very least.
The Browns were one of the best teams in football in 2023 despite a nightmare quarterback situation, and while it's not likely that Deshaun Watson will get all the way back to his best form, it's just about impossible to fathom the team getting less out of the position than they did a year ago.
One of the best defenses in the NFL remains intact, as does an elite offensive line, which even got a draft steal in Michigan's Zak Zinter after a major injury caused him to fall. With better overall injury luck- a near guarantee given the 2023 injury list -- Cleveland should be able to replicate its 2023 level of success, if not surpass it.
The schedule is also a relatively friendly one- the AFC North faces the NFC East, a top-heavy division providing two nearly-assured wins, and the AFC West, which provides little punch outside of the defending champion Chiefs.
The best news for this wager is that Cleveland's schedule is backloaded, with games against Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami and Baltimore to close the season, so it should stack wins early and give you a good opportunity to hedge if you so choose.
That being said, this number could very well cash in or before the early days of December; it's well worth the fairly short odds.
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10.5 Wins (+105)
The Eagles cleared this number last year, but not as comfortably as they probably should have; after one of the most disastrous season-ending stretches we've seen from any contender in recent years, buy low on Philly and expect them to bounce back.
For starters, they have every ability to go 5-1 in the NFC East, with the Giants and Commanders in rough shape, and a split with the Cowboys always a fairly reasonable outcome to project.
Outside of the division, the Eagles did get a tough draw by facing the entire AFC North, but Pittsburgh and Cincinnati should be extremely winnable games.
However, the NFC South is an extremely soft division to face, and could easily provide Philly with three or four wins, and the Jaguars at home is a winnable "17th game" for the Birds.
This team returns a litany of offensive talent, and took drastic steps to improve a secondary that really struggled down the stretch last year. Expect the Eagles to make a serious push to reclaim the NFC East, providing great value on this plus-money number.
Tennessee Titans UNDER 6.5 (-135)
Yes, there's a bit of juice on this line, but for good reason- it's borderline impossible to rationalize the Titans winning seven games. The team won six last year, and this wager begs the question; what exactly suggests that there would be an improvement?
Let's start at the top -- the horribly misguided firing of Mike Vrabel, one of the very best head coaches in the NFL. This move won't fix anything,
Vrabel was simply scapegoated after a terrible season with a terrible roster wrought by terrible front office decisions, little of which was his own fault. Brian Callahan is one of the more uninspired hirings of this coaching cycle; despite rostering a loaded offense headlined by the likes of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Burrow, his Bengals have only once ranked in the top-10 in the NFL in yardage per game.
The schedule also isn't particularly forgiving. No team wishes for a week five bye, after which the team could very well be 0-4 after a tough starting stretch of schedule and staring down the barrel of 13 consecutive game weeks.
The AFC South is a quietly-strong division, as the Texans are shaping up to be a contender, while the Jaguars and Colts are huge leap candidates this season. Tennessee also has to play every team in the hyper-competitive NFC North, and an AFC East division that also features three playoff contenders.
On top of it all, the team has to reinvent itself after the departure of the talismanic Derrick Henry, who continued to produce last year, leading the league in rushes behind a mediocre offensive line.
It can be argued that Tennessee is going about a rebuild the right way, but it would be a real challenge to assert that it'll see it pay off in 2024.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.