3 Players Most Likely to Catch Aaron Judge as MLB Home Run Leader

St. Louis Cardinals star Paul Goldschmidt.
St. Louis Cardinals star Paul Goldschmidt. / Dilip Vishwanat/GettyImages

We’re about two months into the 2022 MLB season and I think it’s a good time to re-evaluate the current odds on some futures.

First up is who will hit the most home runs during the regular season. As it stands, Aaron Judge holds a significant lead in this category with 21 long balls in his first 52 games of the year. That works out to around one home run every 2.5 games for Judge. No other player comes close to matching that.

It should come as no surprise that Judge leads the pack as the odds on favorite to stay hot all year at -120. But Judge is injury prone and susceptible to slumping as a result of missing games. While this hasn’t been an issue yet this year, as a Yankee fan I can say it’s only a matter of time before Judge ends up on the IL for at least a little while.

He’s also deep in contract talks that aren’t going his way. This could become a distraction as the end of his current deal nears. While I’d love to see him hold this lead all year, there is little value on Judge at these odds.

Let’s explore a few guys who are better bets heading into the summer. All odds listed are provided by WynnBET Sportsbook

Peter Alonso +850

If I’m going to bet against Judge at this point, I think Alonso is the obvious choice as the guy who will eventually overtake him. And at these odds, he is well worth a look in this spot. Alonso is currently tied for second place with Betts and Yordan Alvarez with 16 home runs.

However, to be fair, he has played five more games than Betts and eight more than Alvarez. 

Alonso and Judge will forever be tied together after the former beat the latter’s rookie home run record in 2019 with 53 bombs. He is averaging more than 40 home runs per 162 games and will enjoy the new DH rule in the National League.

He could very well see the most at-bats in his entire career this season. He got off to a slow start but has come on strong with 11 long balls in his last 37 games He is also a guy who does most of his work late in the season with an average home run rate of one per every 11.9 at-bats during September and October. 

Mookie Betts +1500

I hesitated to add Betts here because of how extreme his home run total was in May. After hitting just three home runs in 74 at-bats in April, Betts exploded with 12 in 114 at-bats in May. And while that is not a rate that anyone can sustain, it has put bets in a tie for second place for the lead.

And while I don’t expect him to hit 10+ home runs a month from now until the end of the season, I also don’t expect him to fall into a slump. Betts is generally very consistent and reliable and I believe he will continue to produce at a high rate at the plate.

Given how well he’s positioned himself heading into the summer, he is a very tempting name on the odds board at 15/1. 

Paul Goldschmidt +7500

Goldy has been one of the biggest surprises in the first two months of the MLB season according to me. The 34-year-old is playing like a much younger man and has been dominating at the plate for most of the season. He is hitting .343 with 12 home runs and an OPS of 1.013.

He hit .404 in May and is currently hitting .429 in 22 at-bats this month. While he is not yet among the top-tier home run hitters, he is fifth in slugging and is a very capable home run hitter. He might be a better bet for MVP right now, but Goldy deserves a look at these odds for the home leader. 

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE.