3 Players to Back at Final Round of AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
By Ben Heisler
It's been an eventful first 54 holes over at iconic Pebble Beach.
Round 1 kicked off with a dominant opening round from Tom Hoge, firing off a 9-under 63. He's stayed in contention throughout, tied for the lead with Beau Hossler and Andrew Putnam at 15-under.
Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth left Day 3 right back in contention with a 63 of his own while nearly falling off a cliff. I mean literally, not even figuratively.
With 18 to go, here are my three favorite final round plays over at Pebble Beach to win the Pro-Am outright.
All odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:
3 Final Round Picks to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Jordan Spieth (+400)
- Denny McCarthy (+8000)
- Dylan Fritelli (+25000)
Jordan Spieth (+400)
Last year, Spieth attempted to change the narrative that he was a golfer to just ride the wave with when he's hot and then steer clear of when he cools off.
This year, he's back at it. After missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, Spieth was on-fire Saturday at Pebble Beach shooting 9-under for a 63 on Day 3; moving one stroke back and into a tie for fourth place at 14-under.
When Spieth's confidence is running high, he's a very difficult fade. He had one rough hole on Saturday, shooting bogey on 13 after hitting the bunker off the tee. Had he avoided the sand, he would have been likely on the green in two.
Spieth is still hitting greens in regulation (GIR) at over 83%, so I'd expect his strong run to continue today.
Denny McCarthy (+8000)
You can always trust McCarthy with the flat stick, and on a shorter course like Pebble Beach, he's always someone that can be a safe, reliable pick to hang around.
Entering the tournament, over his last 24 rounds, McCarthy ranks third overall in total strokes gained, second in short game, and ninth in putting. After a bogey on the first, he quickly shot six-under the rest of the way.
If you're concerned about McCarthy's driving abilities, you can feel secure that his driving accuracy is amongst the best in the field this week, hitting at a 92.3% accuracy clip via PGATour.com.
Even more impressive? McCarthy is bombing it this week compared to the field. His average driving distance has come in at 329 yards, relative to the 305 from the field.
Dylan Fritelli (+25000)
Last week, one of my dark horse picks in Luke List was able to come all the way back from inside the Top 20 to force a playoff with Will Zalatoris, and eventually capture the win. Could Fritelli have a similar outcome this week?
I tend to gravitate towards players who have been the most consistent throughout the week, and Fritelli matches that criteria; shooting 69, 68, and 68 through the first 54.
Fritelli's Saturday was even more impressive considering his lone bogey came after missing a putt from 10 feet out, leaving it just a couple of feet away from the cup. Via the Action Network, Fritelli was outstanding with his approach game; gaining just under 3-strokes with his irons on Saturday.
While his metrics weren't great coming into this week (115th in total strokes gained over his past 24 rounds), but at odds of 250/1 and just five strokes back with not many names heading over him, I think he's worth a dart throw on the final day.
But Ben, what about Patrick Cantlay?
At +300, Cantlay's remaining odds don't feel enticing enough to me. Like Rahm a week ago, I envision a scenario where Cantlay's odds drop past +500/+600 and then jumping on him live.
He entered the week first in the field in total strokes gained, and hasn't done anything for me to want to fade him down the stretch. I just prefer a better number.
Cantlay currently sits just one shot back at -14 overall. Jump on him at your convenience (as well as your right price) live.
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting picks in real-time HERE!