3 Players to Stay Away From in NFL MVP Futures Market

Seattle Seahawks v Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks v Arizona Cardinals / Norm Hall/GettyImages

The NFL offseason is a time to speculate about the potential of players, teams and all the possibilities of how the next season can go. Over the next several months we’re going to here about players being “in the best shape of their career” and coaches expecting “a breakout year” from others. 

One market where bettors should truly temper their expectations is the MVP market. While it’s a quarterbacks award, that doesn’t mean that every quarterback is going to be in the race. In fact, there might be a legitimate three out of 32 that have a chance.

I already have three quarterbacks in mind that I know the narrative around them will mention some type of MVP case. Yet, I’m not buying it.

Here’s the three players I’m staying far away from for MVP, with all odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.

Tom Brady (+900)

Brady had to put the team on his back last season. He led the league in passing attempts, completions and yards; amassing over 5,300 yards passing last year. Yet, he still didn’t win MVP. If Brady could have as great of a season as he did last year and not be the clear choice, there’s no way I’m backing him this season.

The Buccaneers look similar, but they do not have all the same pieces from their title winning team. I’m expecting Brady to take a slight step back and drop out of the MVP race towards the end of the year. 

Joe Burrow (+1200)

The Burrow hype has gotten extremely too high for me.

I’ve seen a lot of people trying to put Burrow as a top 5 quarterback; making him the next in line to win MVP. That won’t happen.

The Bengals are set for a little bit of regression in a division that got all-around better. Burrow may have decent stats this season, but he and the Bengals won’t have enough wins to place him at the top of the mountain. 

Russell Wilson (+1500)

We’ve been trying to let Wilson cook for years now. It’s time to shut the restaurant down. Wilson made a move to a team that has worse weapons than what he had, two quarterbacks levels ahead of him at this point in his career, and in a conference where his team may miss the playoffs. 

Wilson hasn’t been the “elite” version of himself since the middle of the 2020 season, when he began turning the ball over and seeing his numbers drop. The Broncos are a highly volatile situation and I think Wilson doesn’t get the Cinderella story he hoped for. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.