3 Super Bowl Long Shot Bets to Make Halfway Through the NFL Season

Nov 6, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) passes
Nov 6, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) passes / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

While there are three favorites to win the Super Bowl right now, this season feels as wide open as any when it comes to betting on who will win the big game.

If you need any proof, just consider the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers, who would be the lowest seed in the NFC playoffs if things ended today, yet have the fourth-lowest odds to win the big game (+1200). Anyone who watched them get upset by the Falcons two weeks ago knows they're far from an elite team.

Yet, where there's parity, there's also opportunity for bettors to cash in. The Bills, Chiefs and Eagles are the favorites in Vegas to win the Super Bowl right now, but they're all beatable (as the Jets proved against Buffalo last week) and there's plenty of value to be had in the current Super Bowl future market.

Below are three teams with long-shot odds (over +1500) I believe are worth consideration for a futures bet on the Super Bowl. These teams are longshots for a reason, so take it all with a grain of salt, but in a year where no team has established themselves as the NFL's alpha, that's what makes this such a profitable oportunity.

Miami Dolphins (+2300)

The Dolphins have all the weapons needed to win the Super Bowl. The only reason their odds are this juicy is people still don't believe in Tua Tagovailoa. Well, I'm here to tell you it's time to start.

The Dolphins are 6-1 in games started by Tua and their one loss was when he got knocked unconscious against the Bengals. While he doesn't have the arm talent of someone like Justin Herbert (more on him in a minute), when you have two receivers capable of breaking a 5-yard cross into a 55-yard TD, you don't need it.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the best receiving duo in the NFL and we've seen how important having multiple offensive threats is for recent Super Bowl winners. The addition of Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline was critical for a team that needs to improve in downhill running and fellow deadline addition Bradley Chubb should help a pass rush that sacks the opposing QB only 5% of the time.

The Dolphins are only a half game out of the AFC East lead appear to have found their mojo again since Tua returned from his concussion. Get on board the Tua express before it's too late.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3000)

As has been the case in the past, the Chargers are an injury-ravaged team once again. Unlike in past years, they're figuring out how to win close games.

Despite dealing with injuries to star players Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater, JC Jackson, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, the Chargers are 5-3 with with a 4-1 record in one-score games. They're not turning the ball over at a high rate (1.1 giveaways per game) and they're converting over 41% on third downs (key traits in the playoffs).

Their weakness, admittedly, is running the ball and stopping the run, which is bad in playoffs, espeically for a team that will likely have to win on the road (Chiefs have a one-game lead in the division). But Justin Herbert remains a Top 5 quarterback in this league, and as long as he remains healthy (and the Chargers get back Bosa, Allen, Williams and Slater later in the season), they are a dangerous team.

Tennessee Titans (+3700)

You ready to get nuts? Let's get nuts!

The one-dimensional Titans have no business being in the playoff conversation, let alone Super Bowl conversation, and yet when you look at the numbers, they scream playoff contender.

Second in rushing yards allowed per game, eighth in rushing yards per game, ninth in takeaways per game and first in red-zone TD scoring percentage, this team seemingly has all the characteristics you'd look for in a team that can make a deep run in the playoffs. And yet because Ryan Tannehill is under center (when healthy) and has no one to throw to, and because this team is devoid of top-line talent outside Derrick Henry, they're getting overlooked by Vegas in the odds.

I'll take that.

The Titans are all but assured to win the AFC South and host a home playoff game in the first round of the playoffs. They'd likely run into the Chiefs or Bills in the second round, but if Josh Allen is hurt and the Bills stumble, the entire AFC bracket could open up for them.

They face the Bengals, Eagles, Chargers and Cowboys in the second half of the season, but also have winnable games against the Broncos, Packers, Jaguars, Texans and Jaguars again to finish the season. That sounds like an 11-6 record at worst to me.

All of this hinges on Henry staying healthy and this defense continuing to overperform. But at these odds and with those numbers, it's impossible to ignore the idea in a year where it feels like anyone could win it all.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.