3 Teams to Bet to Win the World Series at the All-Star Break (Streaking Mariners Are Worth a Look)
By Josh Yourish
We have made it to the unofficial halfway point of the MLB season and we know who the established powers are. The New York Yankees look dominant, the Houston Astros are right behind, and the Los Angeles Dodgers keep rolling along out in L.A.
However, there are still some valuable World Series bets to make at the All-Star break on a few teams outside of the top group. We’re not necessarily hunting for longshots, but we are always on the lookout for value.
I have found three teams that I see as value to bet now and cash in when late October rolls around.
Best World Series Bets at All-Star Break
- New York Mets +750
- Tampa Bay Rays +4000
- Seattle Mariners +4400
New York Mets (+750)
The Yankees are all the talk in baseball right now, but the other New York team might provide more value as a World Series bet.
The Mets have a top of the line rotation that has been led by Max Scherzer. Their rotation is fourth in expected fielding independent pitching, second in K/9, and still top-10 in ERA despite a batting average on balls in play that ranks 12th highest. That means that they are a top ten staff and they haven’t been lucky. The top rotation is the Dodgers and they have the lowest BABIP of any pitching staff. If BABIP regresses to even league average, the Mets will have one of the best starting rotations in the league.
Even more important than BABIP regression, is Jacob deGrom. When healthy, he is the best pitcher in baseball. He hasn’t pitched an inning this season, but will give the Mets a huge boost when he finally does.
Tampa Bay Rays (+4000)
The Rays have the second best record in the AL East, but the fourth best odds to win the World Series out of that division. They are 51-41 at the break and they’ve gotten there despite being ravaged by injuries. They may not get everyone back from injury, but if Wander Franco stays on the field more in the second half or maybe a Brendan McKay returns to their staff, that would be a huge help.
And, if you want to talk about great starting pitching, look no further than Shane McClanahan. He’s a legit Cy Young contender and a guy like that can carry a team in the playoffs. Plus there is no better team at building a championship caliber bullpen than Tampa Bay.
I used to be scared of teams that would almost certainly not win their division, but with the expanded Wild-Card, you’re no longer taking a chance on a one game playoff.
Seattle Mariners
Speaking of teams destined for the Wild-Card. Currently Seattle sits at 51-42 on a 14-game winning streak. When you look over their roster it doesn’t look like a championship team and this may be a little bit early in their window, but if we learned anything from Juan Soto and the 2019 Nationals, a great young player can blow that window wide open if you’re able to put enough around them.
Julio Rodriguez is that guy for Seattle he has 16 home runs, 52 RBI, and a .814 OPS which is brought down by a bad first month in the majors. Rodriguez is a superstar at 21-years-old and if Seattle is willing to add around him at the deadline they could be worth a flier on a World Series bet. I mean there is a reason this team has won 14 straight heading into the All-Star break.
Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert are a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation and Ty France was named an All-Star replacement and gives them another offensive threat.
The Mariners have not been to the playoffs in 21 years, but leave it to the 21-year-old J-Rod to fix that.
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