3 Teams to Fade in Opening NFL Playoff Odds (Don't Trust Bears, Dolphins)
Breaking down three NFL teams to consider betting against in the opening odds to make the playoffs in 2024.
By Peter Dewey
It's way too early to start thinking about the 2024 NFL season... unless you're looking to get a head start on some futures.
With the opening playoff odds for the 2024 season coming out at DraftKings Sportsbook, there are plenty of teams to consider betting on to make and miss the postseason. Today, we're focusing on teams that I'm not too high on in the playoff market.
Here are the top fade candidates at this point in the offseason:
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NFL Teams to Fade in Opening Playoff Odds
Chicago Bears (-120)
The Chicago Bears have made a ton of moves, adding Keenan Allen, D'Andre Swift, and likely No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams to bolster their offense. The Bears also brought back shutdown cornerback Jaylon Johnson.
Still, I'm far from sold on this team as a favorite (-120 at DraftKings) to make the playoffs. The Bears have better playoff odds than the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Seattle Seahawks, which is kind of shocking given how much better those teams were last season.
Oddsmakers are putting a ton of faith in Williams -- considered a generational prospect -- to turn this franchise around, but will it happen? Chicago has not struck gold in the draft at quarterback before, and we saw just last season the team with the No. 1 pick -- the Carolina Panthers -- ended up finishing with the worst record in the NFL.
I think Chicago has put Williams in a better spot to succeed than Bryce Young had in Carolina, but I can't get behind the Bears at this current price given their recent struggles. I'd rather wait to see if this line moves to plus money later on in the offseason.
Los Angeles Chargers (-115)
The AFC is loaded with talent and the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs are all favored to make the playoffs.
The problem? There are only seven playoff spots.
Los Angeles was one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, and Jim Harbaugh is facing a tough task to rebuild this team, especially since the Chargers moved on from top playmakers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler this offseason.
The Chiefs are going to own the division, and I'm not sold on the Chargers being better than most of the teams in the AFC East or North. At this current price, I'd stay away from betting them to make the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins (-175)
This is a bit of a bold take, but I think the Miami Dolphins are due for a step back this season.
The team lost a ton of defensive talent (Andrew Van Ginkel, Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker) this offseason, and Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will be working back from major injuries.
In a tough AFC East division, Miami may not be as successful as it was last year when it beat up inferior opponents but struggled against teams over .500 (1-5 last season).
I think there's some value in taking Miami to miss the playoffs at +140.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.