3 Under-the-Radar Week 3 College Football Plays

There is a full serving of college football games this weekend, making it hard to keep an eye on the entire betting board. 

Don’t worry, that’s why I’m here, to try and sift through some of the less covered games that are showing betting value. 

Let’s get into it.

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

West Virginia (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech | TOTAL: 50

Virginia Tech has climbed to No. 15 in the nation, but I’m not buying it. While the team put together a motivated effort and knocked off North Carolina on opening weekend, the team is below the national average in success rate and yards per play. 

I’m more bullish on the veteran West Virginia side that lost on the road to a formidable Maryland team, but have more talent as they welcome a Power 5 opponent to their stadium.

The Mountaineers have veteran running back Leddie Brown, who is looking to have his first big game of the season. After rushing for 1,000 yards last season and more than five yards per carry, he is down to around three per rush this season. 

I’m expecting West Va to own the battle in the trenches against a Virginia Tech team that is outside the top 100 in defensive rushing success rate. 

Give me the unranked Mountaineers as a short home favorite against the Hokies. 

Pick: West Virginia -2.5, play below -3

Purdue (+7.5) vs. Notre Dame | TOTAL: 58

I’m sneaking this into the under the radar section because I think Notre Dame could be on upset alert on Saturday. By looking ahead to a matchup against Wisconsin at Solider Field next weekend, the Irish may overlook a better than expected Purdue team at home.

I have this line pegged at ND -5.5 so I love getting over a touchdown with the Boilermakers.

Notre Dame’s offensive line is a real issue this season, ranking 120th in offensive line yards, meaning that they are getting zero push up front and it’s evident in their rush yards per carry, a measly 2.66 yards. 

Purdue has been great at limiting explosive rush plays and holding their opponents to 3.25 yards per carry thus far. They are going to make Irish quarterback Jack Coan beat them, and I’ll take my chances getting over a touchdown. The secondary has been solid this season, allowing a completion percentage of 55%.

Notre Dame has been playing with fire for two straight weeks in near losses to Florida State and Toledo, and Purdue is in line to give them another scare.

With an explosive offense (centered around receiver Greg Bell) and defensive front that can expose the Irish offensive line in the way of defensive end George Karalaftis, who was second-Team All Big-Ten last season, Purdue is live for an upset on Saturday.

Pick: Purdue +7.5, play to 7

SMU (-11) vs. Louisiana Tech | TOTAL: 65.5 

The money is shaded towards the over at -115, and I expect this to close at 66 or higher, and for good reason. 

SMU’s offense has been electric this far, but it could be doing even better. The team is starting Oklahoma transfer quarterback Tanner Mordecai and has scored 56 and 35 points through two weeks. However, they could have scored much more than 35 last week, averaging more than eight yards per play, but scoring touchdowns on one of three tries in the red zone. 

35 points and the team left a ton on the field, so I'll count on positive regression. After falling way short of the closing total of 76 in last week’s game against North Texas, despite 160 total plays, this number has been taken too far down, so I'll play the over.

Louisiana Tech has been putting up points in a big way as well, scoring 35 against Mississippi State and hanging on to beat Southeast Louisiana 45-42. 

This total is selling both offenses way too short, both are inside the top 50 in plays per minute this season and near the top in explosive pass offense. Did someone say shootout?

Pick: Over 65.5, play to 66.5

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