3 UNDERS to Bet in NFL Week 4

Through the first three weeks of the season, the UNDER is hitting at an extremely high rate. UNDERs are hitting at a 63.8% rate. 

Heading into Week 4, there are several games with value on the UNDER. While low-scoring games are expected to continue, let’s dive into the three best UNDER bets you can make for Week 4. 

Atlanta Falcons-Cleveland Browns UNDER 50

This is my favorite UNDER bet of the week. The Falcons have been able to play either bad defenses or get back into the game during garbage time. The Browns’ defense isn’t going to let that happen, and there’s a good chance that Myles Garrett wrecks the game for the Falcons. 

Cleveland has been dominant on the ground, and it should have some success against the Falcons – who allow 4.8 yards per carry. 

For me, this game boils down to two mediocre quarterbacks going at it. When I see Jacoby Brissett vs. Marcus Mariota, I don’t care how well the offense has been playing. This is an UNDER.

Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 44.5

Neither Houston, nor Los Angeles is averaging at least 20 points per game this season. We all know about Houston’s ineptitude on offense, struggling in each game this season. As for the Chargers, they just lost Rashawn Slater and Jalen Guyton to injury. We don’t even have to mention that Justin Herbert has a rib injury. 

The Chargers are banged up on offense, the Texans struggle on offense and Los Angeles’ defense should step up enough to not allow another 40-point showing from Houston. Last year’s game finished with 70 points. Expect regression. 

New England Patriots-Green Bay Packers UNDER 39.5

I backed the Packers to hit the OVER last week against the Buccaneers, but that was a mistake. Green Bay and New England are a combined 1-5 against the OVER this season. They both are in the bottom 10 in scoring and the Packers are 6th in opponent points per game. Green Bay has adopted a slow and methodical approach to offense, while the Patriots will have to figure out what to do without Mac Jones. 

This is going to be a backup quarterback going against a tough defense and a slow offense.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.