3 Week 3 CFB Games to Bet Before the Lines Move (Syracuse, Auburn Undervalued at Home)
By Reed Wallach
Betting early in the week is important to becoming a winning sports bettor.
Point spreads move quickly throughout the early portion of the week as the market settles on the true difference between two teams. As you get closer to Saturday's in college football, you see a more efficient market and you can be missing out on key numbers that could help you cash your ticket.
As we discussed on Tuesday's Early Reed below, there are several lines to jump on now before key moves are made in the betting market.
Syracuse vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick
This game opened with Purdue as a road favorite, but has quickly moved to a pick 'em. Still, I think there's still room to go on the Syracuse side. I make the Orange -2 in this non conference matchup and I expect them close as a small favorite.
The Orange have seen tremendous returns early on under first year offensive coordinator Robert Anae, who comes from Virginia. With the Cavaliers, Anae helped build a top five offense that averaged nearly seven yards per play and was 10th in success rate in 2021, and he has helped the Orange take a leap on that side of the ball.
Shrader looks much more comfortable under center, the team is averaging 4.24 points per drive, which is good for top 10 in the country. Meanwhile, Tucker picked up on his near-1,500 yard campaign in 2021 with 313 total yards thus far with three touchdowns.
Purdue struggled on defense against Penn State at home, allowing 35 points in the Week 1 loss and I think this can be another high scoring affair on Saturday afternoon at the Carrier Dome. The Boilermakers rely on Aidan O'Connell and the passing game, but Syracuse has the more dynamic offense that should outlast a one-dimensional offense in Purdue.
Syracuse's defense has shown more during the early portion of the season, holding Louisville to seven points, while Purdue's unit struggled in their lone test. I'll take the home team.
Auburn vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick
This is a rematch of last year's thriller in Happy Valley with Penn State keeping Auburn out of the end zone on their final two drives to win 28-20.
I'm not particularly high on either team, but I don't trust Penn State to go on the road and win with margin against an Auburn team that is not looked at favorably in the market. The Tigers had a win total of six as rumors around second year head coach Bryan Harsin's job security swirl. I thiink the preseason projection is weighing down this line.
The team has several key members back on the offensive line and a star running back in Tank Bigsby. With a low total of 47.5, I expect this to be a run heavy game script and for Auburn to win in the trenches.
While the Nittany Lions were able to win at Purdue in a shootout, I rate Auburn higher than the Boilermakers and I expect the jump in class to be an issue for Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lions offense. Auburn's defensive line was the best part of the unit last season, and it should be the best unit on the field again . The team allowed 3.46 yards per carry last year and were 10th in tackles for loss.
I'm going to trust the home team to get the job done and stay within a field goal against a Penn State team that will struggle against SEC competition.
This line is +3 at most places, but a juiced +3.5 at FanDuel is not a bad look either.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
As noted from our discussion above from The Early Reed on Tuesday, Texas A&M is in a ton of trouble this season. The team has an antiquated offense and is still trying to put together a defense that resembles their top five defense from last season that is replacing their coordinator on that side of the ball in Mike Elko.
As Connor O'Gara of Saturday Down South notes, Miami is the side to bet in this matchup given the questions on the A&M side.
I'd rather bet on that Miami team, I'd rather bet on (Miami quarterback) Tyler Van Dyke," O'Gara said on The Early Reed. "I know what Miami has from a defensive standpoint."
"If A&M was going to find their offensive identity, don't you think it would have happened in the final minutes in the final minutes against an Appalachian State team who allowed 60-plus the weekend prior?" O'Gara said on The Early Reed. "
Hanging in a dead number of +5.5 and the market sentiment around the Aggies, hop on the Hurricanes.