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3M Open Odds & Picks: Longshots Present Value in Weak Field

By Iain MacMillan

Michael Thompson was the 2020 winner of the 3M Open.
Michael Thompson was the 2020 winner of the 3M Open. / Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
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The PGA Tour has wrapped up its stretch of seven major tournaments in a span of 11 months with last week’s Open Championship. Collin Morikawa has burst onto the professional golf scene by winning both the first of the seven, capturing the 2020 PGA Championship, as well as the final of the seven by being named the 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year.

Now the PGA Tour sets its sights on a stretch of events that will lead into the FedEx Cup playoffs next month, starting with this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities.

Odds to win the 3M Open

Dustin Johnson is set as the heavy favorite to win the event at WynnBET at +700. Last year’s winner of the tournament, Michael Thompson, is listed at +10000 (100/1).

Here is the list of the top 10 odds at WynnBET to win the 2021 3M Open.

  • Dustin Johnson +700
  • Tony Finau +1400
  • Louis Oosthuizen +1400
  • Patrick Reed +1700
  • Keegan Bradley +2500
  • Emiliano Grillo +2500
  • Matthew Wolff +2500
  • Sergio Garcia +3000
  • Bubba Watson +3000
  • Robert MacIntyre +3000

Picks to win the 3M Open

Robert MacIntyre +3000

PGA events that are held the week after major tournaments almost always have weak fields, and whenever there’s a weak field I tend to shy away from the top favorites on the odds list as they tend to be anyone’s tournament to win. That’s especially the case at an event like 3M Open that really doesn’t give us any defining features or attributes for us to key in on.

That’s why I look more at things like recent form, and Robert MacIntyre has continuously improved each week in his recent starts. Since finishing T49 at the PGA Championship in May, he’s finished T37, T35 at the US Open, T18, and then T8 at last week’s Open Championship.

The 24-year old Scotsman is destined to win on the PGA Tour sooner rather than later, and this could be the week he does just that. He hasn’t competed in enough PGA events to rank in their statistics database, but he’s 7th on the European Tour in total strokes gained.

Luke List +5000

List has finished in the top five in two straight starts, including the Barbasol Championship which served as last week’s alternate event. He seems to thrive in events that have weaker fields, but he also ranks 22nd on the entire PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green.

If he’s able to put it together with his putting, in which he ranks 196th, he can be in contention week in and week out. TPC Twin Cities doesn’t present golfers with any putts that will be extremely difficult, and we’ve seen golfers like Matthew Wolff, who aren’t known for their putting, thrive at this track. List presents some value at his current odds of +5000.

Cameron Champ +10000

Cameron Champ has had a rough 2021 season, but he finished T11 in his latest start at the John Deere Classic which may be a sign that he’s about to turn things around.

One thing that Champ continues to do well is drive the golf ball, as he ranks 3rd on the Tour in driving distance and 5th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Matthew Wolff won the event in 2019 primarily due to his strong play off the tee, so if there’s an event that will play in Champ’s favor, there’d be none better than one that presents a weak field while also rewarding strong driving ability.

You can’t go wrong betting on a golfer as naturally talented as the Cameron Champ at 100/1 odds. If you don’t feel risky enough to bet on him to win, WynnBET is offering his +500 odds for him to finish in the top 20.

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