49ers Covering at an Insane Rate as Underdogs

What a weekend of football it was. We had three road teams win on game-winning field goals, and then as our night cap of the weekend, we got a game that was truly an instant classic of a shootout between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. Part of the mayhem this weekend was the San Francisco 49ers going into Lambeau Field in the freezing cold and stealing a win from the NFC No. 1 seed Packers.

San Francisco is covering at an insane rate

After covering on Saturday as 6-point underdogs, the 49ers are 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games as 'dogs. Basically, what I’m hearing is that the 49ers are much better than they are given credit for, and there’s plenty of reason to believe it.

Too often, the perception of a team is tied to the perception of their starting quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t exactly inspiring. In a year where the playoffs have been ripe with young super star quarterbacks, from Joe Burrow to Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, there’s Garoppolo, who’s just really happy to be here.

49ers Once Again Underdogs to Rams

The 49ers are underdogs again

Entering the NFC Championship Game for the second time in three years, the 49ers will be road underdogs once again. “Traveling,” if you want to call it that, to the Los Angeles Rams, the line has opened at San Francisco +3. 

The 49ers and the Rams played each other on January 9th, and the Niners won in overtime on a field goal. This isn’t some team that anyone should look past. Rams fans are certainly flying high after the dramatic victory over the Buccaneers, but they would be wise not to look past this game.

The last time these two teams played, Rams QB Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions, and the Niners defense held the Rams to only 64 rushing yards. That number would have looked much worse if not for a trick play run by Cooper Kupp that gained 18 yards. 

Last week, in Lambeau in the freezing cold, the Niners defense was up to the task once again. They held the potent Packers rushing attack to 67 rushing yards, and kept Aaron Rodgers out of the end zone. 

The 49ers had the 2nd-best rush EPA allowed this season and the 7th-best EPA per play allowed since Week 10. If they shut down the Rams rushing attack like they did just a few weeks ago, they just might be able to continue this ridiculous streak of covering the spread as underdogs.