49ers vs. Broncos Prediction: Broncos Undervalued at Home Following Huge Line Movement

Sunday Night Football in Week 3 features a battle of 1-1 teams when the Denver Broncos host the San Francisco 49ers. 

It’s been a wild two weeks for both of these teams, as the Broncos watched new head coach Nathaniel Hackett struggle to manage the clock and key decisions, while quarterback Russell Wilson has not looked like a franchise star worth $165 million in guaranteed money. 

That being said, Denver’s defense has been solid through two weeks, and the team will have a couple key players back in the lineup in cornerback Patrick Surtain II and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in Week 3. 

As for the 49ers, their quarterback situation is once again at the forefront of the NFL conversation. Second-year signal-caller Trey Lance broke his ankle in Week 2, ending his 2022 season, and giving the 49ers a chance to activate the best insurance policy in the NFL, backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. 

Jimmy G led this team to the NFC Championship Game last season, and it appears sportsbooks believe he gives the 49ers a better chance to win right now, based on the line movement in this game. 

Let’s jump into the latest odds for this Sunday Night Football showdown: 

49ers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

49ers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total Movement in NFL Week 3

There has been a ton of line movement in this game, as Denver opened as a 2.5-point favorite and was a one-point favorite following Week 2. However, the line has now made Denver a 1.5-point dog at home with Jimmy Garoppolo under center for San Francisco. 

49ers vs. Broncos Best Bet and Prediction

There’s no doubt that the Broncos’ offense, and team in general, has looked out of sorts through the first two weeks. 

That being said, it’s important to remember that Hackett didn’t play his starters during the preseason, and he is also getting used to being a head coach in the NFL. Is that an excuse for some of his decisions? Absolutely not. But with more experience, one would think he cleans some of the sloppiness up from the team’s first two weeks. 

The 49ers are a completely different team with Garoppolo than they are with Lance, as they have way less of an offensive ceiling with Jimmy G under center, but he also is much more consistent in the performance you can expect. 

Still, is it enough for the 49ers to be road favorites in this game?

I’m not so sure. 

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season, but it’s the Broncos (seventh in yards per play) who have been the far better offense than San Francisco (22nd in yards per play). 

Now, why is Denver an underdog despite those numbers? 

Well, the Broncos have been horrible at converting in the red zone this season, which has made the offense look much worse than it’s actually been at moving the ball. 

I don’t think the Broncos can be this bad in the red zone for a whole season, and they have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL in Denver. This line has simply moved too much for me to pass up betting on Denver. 

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.