Betsided

49ers vs. Packers Updated Prediction and Odds (What Bettors Need to Know)

By Matt De Saro

The SF 49ers are in a good spot to upset the Packers in the playoffs at home once again. They are 3-0 against Rodgers in the playoffs all-tme.
The SF 49ers are in a good spot to upset the Packers in the playoffs at home once again. They are 3-0 against Rodgers in the playoffs all-tme. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers hope to redeem themselves after failing to make it to the Super Bowl last season in what many considered to be “their year;" beaten by the Buccaneers in the conference championship game.

This year they're set to host the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round. While the Packers have traditionally been unstoppable at home, they have not done great in the postseason, especially when the weather takes a turn towards freezing. We will get into that later though. 

The 49ers are aiming to be the first team to beat Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs four times in a row. However, things are different this time with the Packers holding the No. 1 seed and coming off a bye. The Niners, meanwhile, are playing their third “must-win” game in a row.

So, can the Niners come out and cover this six-point spread? Or can they win outright?

Let’s go over the updated odds for this Divisional Round battle, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

49ers vs. Packers Updated Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • 49ers: +6 (-110)
  • Packers: -6 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • 49ers: +215
  • Packers: -265

Total:

  • 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

49ers vs. Packers Betting Trends

  • The 49ers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. 
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the 49ers last six games.
  • The 49ers are 7-3 straight up on the road this season.
  • The Packers are 7-1 against the spread at home this season.
  • The Packers are 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 games.
  • The Packers are 8-0 straight up in the last eight games at home.

49ers vs. Packers Prediction and Pick

Let’s start with a topic I have become very familiar with over the last two weeks: the Packers' record at home in the regular season vs the postseason. It is no secret that the Packers were the best home team in the NFL this year with a spotless 8-0 record at Lambeau Field. These are my favorite kind of stats because they are easy to understand and provide a concrete answer to an easy question. 

However, this stat does not tell the whole story. 

Once postseason play comes along, things are not so cut and dry. Green Bay did not lose a home game in the playoffs for 80 years, but, since 2002 they have lost six playoff home games in the last 18 years. This includes last season’s loss to the Bucs.

Additionally, it has come to my attention that the Packers struggle at home during the playoffs in bad weather. I was under the incorrect impression that these games were the Packers’ bread and butter. When the temperatures dip below 32 degrees, the Packers are 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 3-3-1 ATS. When the line is six points or more, the Packers are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 ATS in the divisional round when playing in freezing temps.

Now, none of this changes the fact that this season the Packers are the best team in the league, did not lose a game at home, and have a 13-4 record. The extra rest will also help, especially for a defense missing David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander. 

So how do the 49ers overcome such a behemoth of a team? Keep doing what they do best. Run, run, then run again. While the defense focuses on trying to get to Jimmy G, their weakness will be exposed. The Packers are one of the worst run-stopping defenses in the NFL and rank 28th heading into this game. They are 31st in the league in yards per rush to boot. This means that converted WR Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell could run all over this defense. 

And, for all the weapons that the Pacers have, the 49ers are not lagging far behind. SF is fifth in DVOA and has the fifth most dangerous passing attack in the NFL. 

So long as Garoppolo can limit the turnovers and other mistakes, this game could be yet another upset loss for the Packers at home in the playoffs. Give me the points for this game and ill probably sprinkle a bit on the SF moneyline before kickoff. 

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6 (-110)

How do the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Iain MacMillan and Donnavan Smoot power rank their favorite bets for the Divisional Round? Check out the latest episode of "Bet & Breakfast" below.

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