5 Biggest Super Bowl Frauds for NFL Week 18

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys aren't winning the Super Bowl this year.
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys aren't winning the Super Bowl this year. / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Stop wasting your time and money backing any of the teams I'm about to discuss on this list. They ain't winning the Super Bowl no matter how badly you or Skip Bayless want them to. So buckle up because the ride's about to roll. Once it starts, it's going to come to a screeching halt shortly thereafter because these teams are going nowhere fast.

Presenting the Super Bowl frauds list ahead of Week 18, a list comprised of teams with overpriced Super Bowl odds considering they have no chance of winning the Super Bowl.

5. New England Patriots +1800

Who cares that the Patriots just beat the crap out of the Jaguars and hung a 50-burger on them? They're 3-5 against teams with winning records and lost by double digits to the Colts and Bills in back-to-back weeks just before that Jags get-right win. Those performances are more indicative of who the Pats are against top teams and aren't the marks of a team that can win the Super Bowl.

Throw in the fact that no rookie QB has ever won the Super Bowl and the fact that the Patriots would (in all likelihood) have to win three straight road games to get there and I just don't see their path to LA, let alone beating an NFC team once they got there.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +850

They still have Tom Brady. They're the defending Super Bowl champs. They won't go down without a fight. But their path to another Super Bowl will come on the road after the Wild Card round. Winning two road games and the Super Bowl two straight years has never been done. Brady always makes history, but at +850, the value isn't high enough for the potential, which seems slim to none.

You're always stupid for fading Tom Brady, but in this case it's not about him so much as the team.

Star WR Chris Godwin is done for the season. There's no word on when/if star RB Leonard Fournette will return from a hamstring injury. Rob Gronkowski is one awkward hit away from another stint on the IR. The Bucs defense has been battered by injuries all season and they just lost Shaq Barrett. Antonio Brown is also gone, leaving the Bucs mid-game, a game they were losing by two touchdowns to...the Jets.

3. Tennesse Titans +1200

The Titans ascended to the top seed in the AFC and should lock up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the Texans this Sunday. They also got good news that superstar running back Derrick Henry could practice this week and is expected back for the playoffs. Vegas reacted with a collective yawn and so am I. Here's why:

The Titans offense and defense is average across the statistical board. In a win-or-die situation, that won't cut it. Ryan Tannehill isn't leading them on last-minute drives to win games and everything has to go right for them to avoid that scenario. They're turnover prone, have a weak passing attack and, even with Henry coming back, you can't win in the modern NFL being a run-first team.

Ain't gonna happen for them.

2. Dallas Cowboys +1200

The Cowboys defense has lived and died by turnovers. In the playoffs, when turnovers become harder to materialize, that will be their undoing, as it was in their loss to the Cardinals on Sunday.

The Cardinals didn't turn it over last weekend and beat the Cowboys in Dallas. They could face off again in the first round of the playoffs and, while I won't predict another upset there, I will say the formula for beating Dallas is evident: limit turnovers, stuff the Cowboys' rushing attack and connect on big plays through the air.

Even if Dallas wins in the first round of the playoffs, they then likely go on the road to face either the Packers, Bucs or Rams and likely will have to beat two of those teams on the road to make the big game. I don't see that happening in the stacked NFC.

1. Indianapolis Colts +2200

Heading into Week 17, the Colts were the darlings of the NFL darkhorse picks to win the Super Bowl brigade. They had won six of seven, including wins over the Bills, Patriots and Cardinals and a narrow loss to the Bucs. No one wanted to face them in the playoffs.

While the last part of that is still true (no one wants to play a team like the Colts in the playoffs), after losing to the Raiders at home on Sunday, it's clear the Colts are not true Super Bowl contenders.

Like the Cowboys, the Colts defense relies on turnovers to mask their inefficiencies stopping the pass and run, where they rank 19th and 25th respectively in yards per play. Against teams like the Chiefs, Bengals and Bills, that won't cut it.

Their passing offense is even more concerning. They throw for the 23rd most yards per game and have the 24th worst completion percentage. Yes, they have the top run offense in the league, but being one-dimensional on offense doesn't work in the playoffs, as mentioned above with the Titans.

Winning three games on the road in the playoffs isn't impossible. But am I going to beat on Carson Wentz against Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and then whoever comes out of the NFC? Hell to the no.