76ers vs. Heat Prediction and Odds for Game 5 (Back Miami in Bounce Back Spot at Home)
By Reed Wallach
We have ourselves a series in the Eastern Conference 1/4 matchup.
The Philadelphia 76ers won Game 3 and 4 on their home floor to knot the series at 2 games with the Miami Heat. Now, the series flips back to Miami for a pivotal Game 5 with the first four games being defined by injuries and poor shooting from the road teams. What will give in Tuesday's matchup? Let's break it all down with odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:
76ers vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- 76ers: +3.5 (-108)
- Heat: -3.5 (-108)
Moneyline:
- 76ers: +130
- Heat: -160
Total: 210 (Over -108/Under -108)
76ers vs. Heat Prediction and Pick
The return of Joel Embiid has been massive for the Sixers of course, but the team also benefitted from a ton of shot variance in their favor in their pair of home games. The Sixers yielded a ton of open looks on their home court, but the Heat couldn't hit a shot. Miami shot 32-for-105 on uncontested field goal attempts, per NBA.com, in the most recent two games. This is a similar output to what we saw from the Embiid-less Sixers shot in Miami, 14-for-64 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and 2.
The Sixers pulled away from the Heat in Game 4 behind some clutch James Harden shot making and a terrible outing from the Heat's shot makers, 7-for-35 from the 3-point line. Again, the Heat got plenty of clean looks, but couldn't make them. They were also a victim of some wild, late shot clock variance.
Spoelstra last night: "They had a handful of possessions that went all the way down to the end of the clock and made some big shots."
— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) May 9, 2022
Indeed. The Sixers were an amazing 13-for-17 (6-for-8 from 3) in the last 6 seconds of the shot clock in Game 4 (via Second Spectrum).
This has been on ongoing trend in the 2022 postseason. Home favorites are 24-16 against the spread this postseason, so when a home team is expected to win, they are taking care of business. Want to go one step further? Of the four series in the semifinals, home teams are 9-1 straight up before Monday's pair of games.
I'm going to ride with this trend continuing in South Beach on Tuesday, backing Miami to take care of business and go up 3-2. Jimmy Butler has been stellar in this series and will need help from the likes of Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry (who is playing hurt) to round into form. If Miami's role players can find their shooting (can Duncan Robinson get a chance?) this can be problematic for Philly, who needs to win a game on the road to win the series.
The Heat have been on the wrong side of some shot variance but I believe the process of how they are getting their shots is sound offense that can continue, and I'll bet them to get a few more to fall.
LEAN: Heat -3.5
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!