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AAC Football Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Over/Unders and Dark Horses

By Reed Wallach

Bethune-Cookman v UCF
Bethune-Cookman v UCF / Alex Menendez/GettyImages
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The AAC may be changing over the next couple of years with conference realignment ravaging the conferece, but there is no denying the talent it has provided college football.

Last year, Cincinnati broke through as the first non Power 5 team to make the College Football Playoffs, and will look to follow it up with another strong season under Luke Fickell. Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn has UCF in the mix for an AAC title, joined by Houston as two of the top contenders for Cincy's crown.

One of the more competitive conferences is full of capable ball clubs, so let's waste no time and break it all down.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

AAC Regular Season Win Total

  • Cincinnati: 9 (Over -130/Under +100)
  • East Carolina: 6.5 (Over +120/Under -140)
  • Houston: 9 (Over -120/Under +100)
  • Memphis: 7.5 (Over +120/Under -140)
  • Navy: 4.5 (Over +105/Under -125)
  • SMU: 7 (Over -105/Under -115)
  • South Florida: 4.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
  • Temple: 2.5 (Over -140/Under+120)
  • Tulane: 6 (Over +110/Under -130)
  • Tulsa: 6 (Over +100/Under -120)
  • UCF: 8.5 (Over -125/Under +105)

AAC Conference Championship Odds

  • Cincinnati: +180
  • Houston: +240
  • UCF: +360
  • SMU: +1000
  • Memphis: +1200
  • East Carolina: +2000
  • Tulsa: +3000
  • Tulane: +4500
  • South Florida: +5500
  • Navy: +8000
  • Temple: +25000

AAC Championship Favorite: Cincinnati (+180)

The two-time defending champions enter as the favorite once again, but with some new faces in key positions. Star quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Jerome Ford are out on offense, and likely former Cincy backup and Eastern Michigan transfer Ben Bryant is in.

On defense, Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner is with the New York Jets and the team lost five others to the NFL. While there will be some turnover on this side of the ball, this is a team that has a defensive foundation that will lean on the likes of their deep linebacker core, headlined by Deshawn Pace and his brother Ivan, who transferred form Miami (OH) after winning MAC Defensive Player of the Year.

The offensive line is one of the deepest in the country, boasting 107 starts combined after paving the way for an elite rushing attack.

In AAC play, the Bearcats go to SMU and UCF in back-to-back weeks, but will be favored comfortably in every other game.

AAC Championship Dark Horse Pick: SMU (+1000)

The top three is set at the top of the AAC, but don't forget about the Mustangs.

Sonny Dykes may be off down the road to TCU, but Rhett Lashlee steps in as a first time head coach and one of the most explosive offenses in the country at his disposal.

Tanner Mordecai transferred from Oklahoma and was outstanding in his first season at the helm, throwing for 3,628 yards, 39 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Joining him in the backfield is Alabama transfer Camar Wheaton, who steps in for 1,000 yard-back Ulysses Bentley.

The defense has question marks after placing eighth in total defense last season, but their team is always going to look to outscore teams rather than contain them.

Overall, 74% of the team is back, per ESPN's Bill Connelly, and SMU has opportunities to pluck off the top of the food chain (at UCF, home for Cincinnati and Houston).

AAC Championship Best Bet and Pick: UCF over Houston

No Cincy for me this year. While I see the clearest path for a conference title berth for Houston, who avoids the Bearcats and Knights in regular season play, I think UCF is the best team in the league this season.

The Knights have some questions at quarterback - will it be Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee or last year's starter for the second half of the year Mikey Keene? - but this team is loaded. For starters, running back Isaiah Bowser is a stud (who must stay healthy) and is flanked by speedster Johnny Robinson (seven yards per carry). The offensive line brings everybody back from last season with six having time as starters due to injury.

On defense, nine of the top 12 tackles are back and defensive coordinator Travis Williams has a host of weapons in the secondary. The team was 36th in passing yards allowed per game and should be improved this season with continuity.

The team gets SMU and Cincinnati at home as their two toughest conference games. If they hold serve at the 'Bounce House' and avoid slip ups at East Carolina or Memphis, they should be in the AAC title game in Malzahn's second season.

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