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Abilene Christian vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Odds for WAC Conference Tournament Championship Game

By Reed Wallach

Mar 20, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; A detailed view of the center court March Madness logo
Mar 20, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; A detailed view of the center court March Madness logo / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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Two teams looking to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament will meet on Saturday night in the Western Athletic Conference Championship game.

No. 1 seed New Mexico State takes on No. 6 seed Abilene Christian in the WAC title game. These two teams met earlier this season with the Aggies winning 77-63 at home. Can ACU get some revenge with an NCAA Tournament berth on the line?

Here are the odds for the March Madness showdown from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Abilene Christian vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Abilene Christian: +5 (-105)
  • New Mexico State: -5 (-115)

Moneyline:

  • Abilene Christian: +170
  • New Mexico State: -210

Total: 135.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Abilene Christian vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Pick

I believe this line is overrating New Mexico State, who is playing very similar basketball to ACU over the last month of basketball, according to barttorvik.com. ACU is 9-2 since February 12th and ranks 88th in adjusted efficiency while NMSU is 8-3 and ranked 76th.

Yes the Aggies are the better team with Nebraska transfer Timmy Allen, who scored 41 on Abilene in the team's win earlier this season, but the gap isn't as big as the 5 point spread indicates.

The Wildcats are generating turnovers on 30% of their defensive possessions over the last month, the best mark in college basketball. That can be problematic for New Mexico State who is 291st in turnover rate.

That being said, the favorites do have an edge on the offensive glass, second in the conference, which can be a problem against ACU, who ranks 8th on the defensive glass. However, I still see the turnovers causing an issue for New Mexico State who has struggled all season with turnovers.

In a championship setting, I like ACU to stay close. Keep in mind, New Mexico State shoots 66% from the free throw line as a team while Abilene shoots nearly 77%.

LEAN: Abilene Christian +5

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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