ACC Win Total Over/Under Preview: Can Wake Forest Repeat 2021 Success?

It's July, so it's time to start building that college football futures portfolio.

Over the next several weeks, I'm going to share (at least) two win total bets that I'm playing for each conference in college football: one over and one under.

Today, we'll start with the ACC, where I think Wake Forest can find similar success to last season, Meanwhile, the bottom might be falling out from Georgia Tech.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

You can find all of my college football plays on my Betstamp @rw33

Wake Forest OVER 8.5 Wins (+110)

Wake had a banner 2021, going 11-3 and making the ACC Championship game for the first time since 2006. However, I think they can outperform expectations again.

Let's start with the roster before we break down the schedule.

We know the offense can hum with Sam Hartman under center. He accounted for 50 total touchdowns (one off Lamar Jackson's record) last season and passed for 4,228 yards. While he lost his top target Jaquori Robinson, there are more than enough options for him to find.

Donavan Greene missed all of 2021 due to injury, but was second on team in receiving yards in 2020 and set to be a Week 1 starter. Opposite him is A.T. Perry, who hauled in 71 passes for 1,293 yards and 15 touchdowns last season.

The offensive line is deep, returning upper classmen at every spot. All three interior OL's were All-ACC honorable mentions. There are veterans to keep this offense afloat for the dual-threat Hartman.

The questions come on defense.

The defense was the Achilles heel to the roster last season, but there is optimism that they can become passable in 2022 with former Purdue DC Brad Lambert joining the coaching staff.

Lambert helped create an elite defense in West Lafayette last season, a top 30 unit, per SP+ after placing 60th in 2020. Even a marginal jump can make the Demon Decans more formidable. After allowing more than 30 points per game in 2021, the team is hoping to take a step forward under Lambert's tutelage.

It's tough to follow up an 11-3 season, but the path is there. The non conference schedule is easy with VMI at home, a road trip to Vanderbilt and home game against Liberty. If the team can knock off Clemson at home, it's off to the races.

Road trips to Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina State aren't easy, but Wake should be favored in every other remaining game.

At plus-money, I'm banking on the proven commodity in Hartman to keep this team elite on offense. As for the defensive side of the ball, if the team can take even the smallest step forward, I wouldn't be shocked to see them leapfrog some into the ACC Championship again.

PICK: Wake Forest OVER 8.5 (+110)

Georgia Tech Under 3.5 Wins (+105)

No, there isn't much margin for error here, but I can't find four wins on this schedule with this roster.

For starters, Georgia Tech lost their most talented offensive player, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, to Alabama, and are still waiting for Jeff Sims to take a step forward at quarterback. This is the third season Sims is going to be part of the QB room and we are still waiting to see if he can put together a full season.

After transitioning from the triple option, head coach Geoff Collins has been hoping the dual threat Sims can usher in a new era of Yellow Jackets football, but it hasn't worked to date. The team has question marks all around Sims, and a lot of weight will fall on him. I'm not so confident with the team bringing back 49% of their returning production of last season and questions swirling around Collins' job security already.

Georgia Tech scored 17 or fewer points four times in 2021 and bring back less than 50% of their rushing yards, receiving yards and offensive line starts, per The Athletic.

There wasn't much better on the defensive side of the ball either, the team was outside the top 100 in yards per play, third down defense and turnovers generated.

Overall, this seems like the final year of the Collins era. Just look at this schedule.

Non conference games consist of: Western Carolina, Mississippi and at UCF and then a season finale against Georgia. After that the team is likely a favorite in one conference game this year: home against Duke.

While upsets do happen, I see two likely victories, can a team that is in such turmoil find two more coin flip victories? I'll bet against it at + money.

PICK: Georgia Tech UNDER 3.5 Wins (+110)