Aces vs. Liberty prediction and odds for Monday, Aug. 28 (Can New York win again?)
By Peter Dewey
The New York Liberty have won nine of their last 10 games, with their only loss coming to their opponent on Monday night – the Las Vegas Aces.
Over this 10-game stretch, New York has beaten Las Vegas twice, including a win in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Final.
The Aces took the last meeting in Las Vegas, but oddsmakers are starting to show some respect to Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and company in this game.
Las Vegas lost its last game to the Washington Mystics, the team’s fifth loss of the season. The Liberty (27-7) will need some more of that to claim the No. 1 seed from Las Vegas, but it’s certainly in play if the team wins on Monday night.
This is the first time all season that the Aces have been underdogs, as they come in as one-point dogs in New York.
Does that mean there is value in betting on A’ja Wilson and company?
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Here’s how I’m betting the Aces-Liberty matchup on Monday night:
Aces vs. Liberty odds, spread and total
Aces vs. Liberty prediction and pick
This is uncharted territory for the Aces this season, but essentially we’re looking at a game that is a pick’em.
While the Aces have been great all season long, they’ve lost four games in their past 10 matchups – if you include the Commissioner’s Cup Final.
Yes, two of those games were to New York, but the Aces seem to be coming back to earth a bit after an insane opening to the season. The team scored just 62 points in its loss to Washington in its last game, the third time in 10 games that it has failed to score over 70 points.
In the team’s other loss to the Los Angeles Sparks, it mustered just 72 points.
Could that be a concern for a team that sports the No. 1 offense in the WNBA?
The Aces rank first in offensive rating, first in defensive rating, first in effective field goal percentage and second in 3-point percentage (New York is No. 1) this season. However, the team seems to be slowly slipping as the playoffs approach.
This doesn’t mean I’d fade the Aces against other opponents, but against the Liberty, I’m going to.
New York has the star power to compete with the Aces, and it ranks second to them in many key advanced numbers this season.
With Stewart, Ionescu and Jonquel Jones meshing at the right time, the Liberty are a serious threat to win the WNBA Finals this season.
New York is 12-4 at home in the 2023 campaign while the Aces have dropped four games on the road out of their six losses. I think the Liberty can stay hot and win this matchup on Monday.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.