Aces vs. Sun Prediction and Odds for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals (All Signs Lead to Under in Connecticut)
By Ben Heisler
A'ja Wilson may be the MVP of the league, but Las Vegas Aces teammate Chelsea Gray is the unquestionable MVP of this postseason.
In eight games, the Aces' veteran guard is shooting a sizzling 60.5%, including a staggering 67% on contested shots. Everyone else is less than half of that number!
Chelsea Gray = Tough shot maker.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 14, 2022
Gray is shooting 67% on contested FGA in the WNBA Finals compared to 36% by all other players in the series. pic.twitter.com/NpEwGjISzS
Gray and the Aces look to close out the best-of-five series tonight when they travel to Connecticut to face the Sun.
Connecticut has already been on the brink of elimination in the WNBA semifinals; rallying to beat the defending champion Chicago Sky in two straight games, including a staggering comeback and 18-0 run in the fourth quarter to survive and advance.
The Sun will need to win three straight to come back in this series, but how do the sportsbooks expect them to handle Game 3 tonight?
Here are the latest odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook:
Aces vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Aces +1.5 (-110)
- Sun -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Aces +100
- Sun -122
Total:
- 160.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
Aces vs. Sun Betting Trends
3 #WNBAFinals Betting Trends to consider for Aces vs. Sun in Game 3 tonight.
— Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) September 15, 2022
1. Away teams are 14-7 ATS in the #WNBAPlayoffs
2. Sun are 5-1 ATS in last 6 games after an ATS loss.
3. Unders are 13-8 in the postseason, 7-1 in last 8 Sun games, and 7-2 in last nine H2H matchups.
Aces vs. Sun Prediction and Pick
My first instinct after seeing the line was to bet on Connecticut at home to cover a short line; avoiding the trap oddsmakers look to set to the public with Las Vegas up 2-0 in the series and on the brink of the first title in team history.
However, the under to me appears to be the much safer play in this matchup.
Since their Game 3 loss at home to Chicago, the Sun have really clamped down defensively. They've owned the best defensive rating in the league (93.1) and own a +11 net rating at home during the playoffs. They also improve defensively in the second half of games, leading the WNBA this postseason in defensive rating (86.6).
Meanwhile, the Aces have held the Sun to 64 points in Game 1, and just 71 in Game 2. After Connecticut, they've been the best second half defense in terms of rating (94.4) in the playoffs.
There are also several trends backing the under tonight as well. Las Vegas is 8-2 in unders over its last 10 matchups playing on just one day of rest, unders are 8-3 in Connecticut's last 11 games following a loss, and overs have gone just 2-7 in these two teams' last nine games.
Both teams appear fully committed defensively down the stretch of the season, and I expect yet another rock fight with the Sun playing for their postseason lives at home.
PICK: Aces vs. Sun UNDER 161.5 (-115) - bet down to 160.5
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