Betsided

Aces vs. Sun Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 17 (Connecticut Upset in the Cards vs. Las Vegas)

By Ben Heisler

The Connecticut Sun have won their first two games post-All-Star break and host the top-ranked Las Vegas Aces this afternoon.
The Connecticut Sun have won their first two games post-All-Star break and host the top-ranked Las Vegas Aces this afternoon. / Abbie Parr/GettyImages
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After stumbling their way into the All-Star break last week, the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun appear rested and rejuvenated heading into their nationally televised matchup Sunday afternoon.

The Aces (17-7) ended the first half with two brutal losses at Minnesota against the Lynx, followed by giving up 116 points to the New York Liberty as Sabrina Ionescu dropped the league's first ever 30-point triple-double on Las Vegas in their home building. They've since responded by sweeping the Liberty in Brooklyn; including a 108-74 rout on Thursday in an early 11 a.m. EST start.

Meanwhile, the Sun (16-8) have won their first two post-All-Star break games on the road; cruising vs. the Indiana Fever and blowing out the Atlanta Dream on Friday night 93-68 down south.

Who has the edge today? Here are the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Aces vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Aces -4
  • Sun +4

Moneyline:

  • Aces -170
  • Sun +138

Total:

  • 174.5 (OVER -106 | UNDER -114)

Aces vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

Everything has looked easy for the Aces since the second half began last Tuesday; scoring at will against the New York Liberty in two games on the road. But I'd be a little weary before backing them today.

The Aces play their second straight early start game on the East Coast today, and face a Sun team that's far superior both offensively and defensively compared to the Liberty team they just played. Connecticut ranks third in opponent points/100 possessions, second in margin/100 possessions, and can also keep up with Vegas offensively. The Aces are first in points/100 possessions and points per game, but the Sun are third in both categories, as well as in points/scoring attempt.

If the Aces continue to shoot lights out from 3-point range, they'll win. However, shooting 48.5% like they did on Thursday morning simply isn't sustainable, and I expect the Sun's length to give them some trouble. Connecticut has already defeated Las Vegas once on the road as the series is split 1-1.

At home with an early start, I think they can hang with the WNBA title favorites, and possibly pull off the upset along the way.

LEAN: Sun +4 (-110) | Sun ML +138

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