We've got some early afternoon hoops in Dallas when the league-leading Las Vegas Aces take on the Wings today.
Dallas has come up short in their last three games, all by less than six points, and have gone through a grueling stretch with four games against Seattle and Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, the Aces continue their road trip following a 89-72 road win at Los Angeles, and look to improve to 5-1 against the spread away from home.
Aces vs. Wings Odds, Spread and Total
- Aces -9 (-110)
- Wings +9 (-110)
- Aces -370
- Wings +290
Total: 175 (Over -110/under -110)
Aces vs. Wings Prediction and Pick
Any time that teams get out of their element, playing a random afternoon game in the middle of the week, my first inclination is to take the under. This is despite the total opening up at 171.5 at most consensus books, and now sitting at 175 at WynnBET Sportsbook.
I always think about Christmas Day games in the NBA, where unders have hit at almost a 75% clip in the early afternoon matchups, and am using a similar perspective here. Also, a 3.5-point swing feels like too much and would be a bit of an overreaction to jump on the over at this point.
The Wings put up a very strong defensive effort against the Aces the last time out, only allowing 84 points on the road in Las Vegas against the most efficient offense in the league. They held the Aces to 42% shooting from the floor, and only 25% from 3-point range.
Are the Aces explosive? Of course. But Dallas was effective slowing down the pace their last time out, and now that they're at home, I expect a similar type of performance.
Dallas has come up oh-so-close in their last several games, and while I don't expect them to pull off an upset, I will back a more defensive battle than most might expect.
LEAN: UNDER 175 (-110)
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