AFC East division odds (Can Aaron Rodgers lead Jets from worst to first?)

The AFC East should be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL in the 2023 season.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The AFC East is going to be arguably the best division in the NFL in the 2023 season, as Aaron Rodgers’ arrival in New York puts multiple star quarterbacks up against each other. 

The Buffalo Bills have controlled this division in recent seasons thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen and the departure of Tom Brady, but that could come to a close in the 2023 season. 

Buffalo is favored (+120) to win the division, but the New York Jets (+270) and Miami Dolphins (+300) are both in the conversation as well. Even though oddsmakers are low on the New England Patriots (+800), can we really count out a Bill Belichick coached team? I wouldn’t. 

That should make this division race one of the best in the league, especially since Miami and Buffalo were playoff teams last season and each team won at least seven games. 

The Bills are relying on running things back in 2023, but the other teams in this division made some key additions that could propel them to the playoffs. 

Jalen Ramsey (knee injury) was the Dolphins’ big offseason acquisition, but the team won’t have him until at least December after he suffered a meniscus injury this offseason. Still, Miami’s season could look much different if Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy in 2023. 

The Jets obviously added Rodgers to a roster that already has an elite defense, and the team could make more moves as the season progresses. 

In New England, Mac Jones will have a new offensive coordinator after Matt Patricia failed horribly in the 2022 season. 

It would be surprising if the AFC East didn’t support multiple playoff teams, but which team should we expect to win the division? 

Here are the latest odds and my best bet: 

AFC East division odds

Implied probability to win the AFC East

  • Buffalo Bills: +120 – 45.45%
  • New York Jets: +270 – 27.03%
  • Miami Dolphins: +300 – 25.00%
  • New England Patriots: +800 – 11.11%

AFC East best bet to win the division

The Bills are the favorite to win the division, but they have a tough schedule outside of their division games, which I think opens the door for a team to steal the AFC East crown.

Buffalo plays eight games against playoff teams from last season that are not in the team’s division: 

  • Home vs. Jacksonville
  • Homes vs. New York Giants
  • Home vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Away vs. Cincinnati Bengals
  • Away vs. Philadelphia Eagles
  • Away vs. Kansas City Chiefs
  • Home vs. Dallas Cowboys
  • Away vs. Los Angeles Chargers

No matter how you look at it, that’s a tough schedule, especially since all six of the team’s division games are against teams that are viable playoff contenders.

It seems like every season in the NFL, a team goes from worst to first in its division. 

I think the Jets have a chance – with Rodgers at the helm – to do just that in 2023.

New York gets the benefit of playing a last-place schedule, taking on just five playoff teams from last season in its non-division games. 

The Jets also have a great close to the season in their final six games:

  • Home vs. Atlanta
  • Home vs. Houston
  • Away vs. Miami
  • Home vs. Washington
  • Away vs. Cleveland
  • Away vs. New England

The team’s defense should still be among the best units in the league, and let’s not forget that New York was 7-4 last season before poor quarterback play cost it six straight games to end the regular season.

Rodgers is the biggest upgrade from year over year at quarterback for any team, and he should make the Jets instant contenders in the AFC. At +270, they’re worth a shot to win this division.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.