AFC East Now Belongs to the Buffalo Bills

After a span of two decades where the AFC East went through the New England Patriots, I’m officially declaring that the division is now owned by the Buffalo Bills.

WynnBET has recently released odds to win each NFL division, and the Bills are listed as -155 favorites to win the AFC East, which is an implied probability of 60.78%. Despite them already being a minus-money favorite even though the season is still three months away, I think that bet is as close of a lock as you're going to see at that price.

Can the Patriots or Miami Dolphins (or Jets, I guess?) challenge the Bills for the division crown in 2021?

Let’s take a look at each team’s odds:

Buffalo Bills -155

The Bills tied the Green Bay Packers for the second-best record in the NFL last season at 13-3. The Bills only trailed the Kansas City Chiefs in regular season wins, who they eventually lost to in the AFC Championship game. 

Not only did they post the second-best record in the league, but they went a perfect 6-0 inside the AFC East.

What’s even more promising is quarterback Josh Allen has made significant improvements through his first three years in the NFL. While the addition of WR Stefon Diggs certainly helped in 2020, Allen was one of the best quarterbacks in the league completing 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns.

An addition of another offensive weapon, like Zach Ertz, could be enough to establish the Bills as serious Super Bowl contenders in 2021.

Vegas seems to think the Bills belong in the conversation of the top teams in the league as well, as Buffalo sports the third shortest odds to win Super Bowl 56 behind only the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I’d be shocked if Buffalo doesn’t win the division for the second straight season.

New England Patriots +320

I think there’s some Bill Belichick bias in these odds.

If the Patriots were coached by anyone else, there’s no way that they’d be listed at +320 to win the division this season. Especially after making minimal improvements to their roster after a disappointing 7-9 campaign in 2020.

The Patriots drafted Alabama QB Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft, but it seems that Cam Newton will still be the team’s starter at the beginning of the season.

While free agent signings Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry and Nelson Agholor will certainly benefit an offense that ranked 30th in passing yards in 2020, it won’t be enough to compete with the Bills’ firepower.

The Bills beat the Patriots by an average of 19 points in 2020, and unless Mac Jones is truly the next Tom Brady, I can’t see them reclaiming their division crown.

Miami Dolphins +340

There’s a lot to like about the Miami Dolphins in 2021, and if there’s one team that can usurp the Bills, I think it’s them.

The Dolphins had the youngest roster in the NFL in 2020, and they’ve only gotten better this offseason. The ‘Fins drafted Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick in the NFL Draft, and he’ll serve as a much-needed weapon for second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa looked timid at times in 2020, but if he can take a step forward in 2021, I think the Dolphins may surprise some people and find themselves in the postseason.

AFC East champions though? I don’t think so.

New York Jets +1500

There are few franchises in professional sports that have to be as painful to cheer for as the New York Jets. The Jets ranked dead last in the majority of statistics in 2020, including points per game, yards per game, and average scoring margin. If they weren’t dead last in a statistic, you can be assured they were close to the bottom.

Jets fans do have some hope for the future, as they drafted QB Zach Wilson out of BYU with the second overall pick. Even if Wilson shines as a rookie, the Jets have too many holes in their roster to be considered serious contenders inside the division in 2021.