AFC South division odds (Jaguars have massive edge in opening odds)

The AFC South division was a wild race in the 2022 season, with the Jacksonville Jaguars coming from behind to take down the Tennessee Titans and advance to the playoffs.

Jacksonville won a playoff game last season, and oddsmakers are high on the team entering the 2023 campaign, setting the Jags as outright favorites to win the division. 

Meanwhile, the rest of the division is a lot less promising. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both likely going to be starting rookie quarterbacks, while the Titans have Malik Willis and Will Levis waiting in the wings if Ryan Tannehill struggles. 

Down the line, all three of those teams could be extremely interesting to watch, but it’s a lot to ask from such young quarterbacks in their first NFL seasons (if they win the job). 

Trevor Lawrence has quickly become one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, showing that under head coach Doug Pederson that he can lead a contender in Jacksonville. 

With that in mind, let’s dive into the odds for the AFC South division this season, as well as my best bet: 

AFC South division odds

Implied probability to win the AFC South

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 60.78%
• Tennessee Titans: 22.22%
• Indianapolis Colts: 14.29%
• Houston Texans: 9.09%

AFC South best bet

It’s a square play, but the Jaguars are the easy bet to win this division – as long as Lawrence stays healthy. 

Not only does the AFC South have two rookie head coaches (Shane Steichen in Indy and DeMeco Ryans in Houston), but it has young rosters that weren’t ready to compete in 2022. 

Houston and Indy may be better with improved quarterback play, but I still question if either team is built to win around a rookie quarterback. Plus, Jonathan Taylor’s rift with owner Jim Irsay could make things tough on the Colts and Anthony Richardson. 

If Taylor misses time in 2023 for a holdout, I don’t see the Colts having the firepower to win this division. 

Tennessee did add a big-time playmaker in DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, but Tannehill’s play was not good enough for the team to make the playoffs in 2022. Plus, Derrick Henry is another year older with more tread on his tires. Eventually, the star running back is going to decline. 

The Jaguars are an up-and-coming team that adds Calvin Ridley to an already vaunted offense. 

Pederson – in my opinion – is the best coach in the division (sorry Mike Vrabel), and he is armed with clearly the best quarterback. 

The Jags open the season with three winnable games as well, which could move them to even larger favorites in the division: 

• Week 1 @ Indianapolis
• Week 3 vs. Houston
• Week 4 vs. Atlanta

Yes, the team plays the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, but even that game is at home. 

If the Jags get off to a hot start, and their schedule tells me that they will, you’re going to wish you got in on the ground floor with their odds to win the AFC South.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.