Air Force Falcons Win Total Prediction in 2024 (Fly High with the Falcons)

The Air Force Falcons have quietly been one of the better mid-major programs over the last two decades, which can be attributed to the leadership of head coach Troy Calhoun.

Calhoun is entering his 17th season as the Falcons head coach and is looking to lead his team to a winning season for the 13th time in his tenure.

Air Force Falcons Win Total

• OVER 6.5 Wins (-134)
• UNDER 6.5 Wins (+110)

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Air Force Falcons Offensive Analysis

The recipe on offense for the Falcons has always been a strong run game. This season will be no different, but there is a lot of production to be replaced. The Falcons lost both of their top running backs from a season ago to graduation, which means that Dylan Carson and Aiden Calvert who combined for 600 rushing yards in limited action are the new one-two punch combination for the Falcons' offense.

Both backs will be running behind an entirely new offensive line however, as last season’s starting five have all graduated, the productivity of the running game will start and stop with projected starting center Costen Cooley.

The theme of new faces in the offense doesn’t stop yet as John Busha will be the Falcons’ starting quarterback. Busha did see minimal playing time a season ago, and he isn’t the stereotypical run first quarterback that Air Force is accustomed to having which allows for the potential of an expanded passing attack.

Speaking of the passing attack, the Falcons return their top three receivers from a season ago, and the receiving corps led the nation with 20.1 yards per reception, however the Falcons only attempted eight passes per game. Jared Roznos led the Falcons with 374 yards and he will be the go to target for his new quarterback.

Air Force Falcons Defensive Analysis

The Falcons defense was among the nations best; ranking 14th in points allowed per game and sixth in yards allowed per game. However, much like the offense, almost every starter needs to be replaced.

Payton Zdroik had 4.5 sacks last season and he will be the face of a defensive line that was responsible for allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game a season ago. Zack Juckel saw minimal playing time last season and he has been pegged as the linebacker responsible for replacing a trio that combined for 165 tackles and 17.5 sacks.

The secondary returns experienced cornerbacks Jamari Bellamy and Trey Williams, who combined for 70 tackles and nine pass breakups. The real challenge for the secondary will be replacing the lost production at safety after All-American Trey Taylor moved on to the NFL. Levi Brown and Jake Martin are the projected first time starters at the safety position.

Air Force Falcons Season Outlook and Prediction

The Falcons’ non-conference schedule is highlighted with a road trip to Waco, Texas to face a Baylor team that is picked to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 conference. The Falcons will likely be an underdog in that game, but I think there is a great chance for an upset.

The remainder of the non-conference slate features the traditional rivalry games with Army and Navy, along with a matchup against Oregon State in the home finale.

The conference schedule is very favorable; the Falcons don’t have to play the two favorites in the Mountain West, Boise State and UNLV, and they get to play talented Colorado State and Fresno State teams at home. The only conference game where the Falcons are likely to be an underdog is the road trip to Wyoming.

Air Force has won at least nine games in four of the last five seasons, and I understand why the win total for this season is sitting at 6.5 Replacing the production that the Falcons lost from last season seems impossible, but if you are familiar with Air Force football you know they do this every year.

Underclassmen rarely play and they don’t go into the transfer portal. Taking this all into account, along with the fact that I can’t bet against a Service Academy, I am taking Air Force to have another winning season.

Prediction: Air Force Falcons OVER 6.5 Wins (-134)

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.