Air Force vs. Nevada Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 12

One of the top-25 best defenses and one of the top-25 offenses in the nation go head to head on Friday night in Mountain West Conference Action. The Nevada Wolf Pack have the No. 24 ranked offense in football in terms of points scored while the Air Force Falcons have the No. 11 ranked defense in points scored. 

The Falcons are coming off a 35-21 win over Colorado State led by QB Haaziq Daniels who threw for two touchdowns and broke the record for the longest pass in school history at 92-yards. Air Force took the lead on its first drive and never looked back. It was a dominant win from wire to wire. 

The Wolf Pack didn’t fare as well last week after losing a heartbreaker to SDSU 23-21. The win gave the Aztecs sole possession of the first place in the West Division with a 5-1 conference record. Carson Strong passed for 350 yards and three touchdowns in the loss but the defense just couldn’t hang on. Strong now ranks fourth in the nation with 3,547 yards and ninth with 28 passing touchdowns. 

Can the Wolf Pack bounce back after last week’s crushing loss or will Air Force soar to a second straight victory? 

Here are the odds for this Mountain West West Division showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Air Force vs. Nevada Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

• Air Force: +1.5 (-110) 

• Nevada: -1.5  (-110) 

Moneyline:

• Air Force: +110

• Nevada: -130

Total:

• 54.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Air Force vs. Nevada Betting Trends

• The Falcons are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games 
• The UNDER is 4-1 in the Falcons' last five games.
• The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. 
• The Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. 
• The OVER is 6-3 in the Wolf Pack’s last nine games. 
• The Wolf Pack are 9-0 straight-up (SU) in their last nine home games. 

Air Force vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick

This game will come down to how well the Falcons defense can slow down Carson Strong. Air Force is allowing opponents to score just 18.0 points per game and hold teams to an average of 288.4 total yards per game.

The Falcons are particularly good at stopping the pass and are seventh in the nation in passing yards allowed per game at 177.6. They are so good that teams average 52.21% running plays against this defense. While their defense is well-rounded, they do have a one-dimensional offense and rush the ball almost 85% of the time. The Falcons barely average 100 yards passing per game but are fourth in the country with average yards per pass of 9.9.

But this defense will have to contend with Carson Strong this weekend and one of the best passing attacks in the game. The team ranks third in the FBS in passes per game and fourth in passing yards per game with 366.2. 

While I think Air Force gives Strong a tough time and slows him down considerably, I don’t see how they score enough to win. Based on this, I will be betting this game to go under the total. Strong is a true talent but won’t be on his A-game with the Falcons swarming. 

Pick: Air Force vs Nevada UNDER 54.5 (-110)