Alabama vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, March 5 (Back the Gators)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Alabama-Florida. 

Florida Gators guard Will Richard (5) gives Florida Gators forward Tyrese Samuel (4) a high-five.
Florida Gators guard Will Richard (5) gives Florida Gators forward Tyrese Samuel (4) a high-five. / Doug Engle/Ocala Star Banner / USA TODAY

One of just two ranked-on-ranked matchups on the college basketball slate for Tuesday, No. 14 Alabama Crimson Tide  heads to Gainsville to face the No. 24 Florida Gators. The total is sky-high in a matchup of two of the best offenses in the nation. Will Alabama’s high-scoring ways continue on the road?

Alabama has won four of its last six games and sits just one game back of Tennessee for first place in the SEC. Florida is one of six teams in the SEC with double-digit conference wins and are trying to bounce back after an 82-76 road loss to South Carolina on Saturday. Here’s the betting preview for Tuesday’s SEC action with a best bet. 

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Alabama vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Alabama vs. Florida Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 17-12 ATS this season 
  • Florida is 13-15-1 ATS this season 
  • Alabama is 15-7 ATS as a favorite this season
  • Florida is 4-3 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The OVER is 21-8 in Alabama games this season
  • The OVER is 17-11-1 in Florida games this season

Alabama vs. Florida How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, March 5
  • Game time: 7 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Stephon O’Connell Center
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN
  • Alabama record: 20-9 (12-4 SEC)
  • Florida record: 20-9 (10-6 SEC)

Alabama vs. Florida Key Players to Watch


Mark Sears: The leader of Alabama’s high-flying offense, Sears leads the SEC in scoring at 20.7 points per game and has turned in 20-plus points in three consecutive contests. Sears is shooting 51% from the field and hits at a 43.3% clip from downtown. Sears had 17 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds in Alabama’s overtime win over Florida Feb. 21. 


Tyrese Samuel: The 6-foot-10 senior is one of four double-digit scorers in the Gators’ lineup. Samuel averages 13.5 points per game while shooting 57% from the field and leads the team in rebounds, as well, at 7.8 per game. Samuel had 28 points in Wednesday’s 83-74 win over Missouri on 12-of-16 shooting and notched a double-double with 10 rebounds. 

Alabama vs. Florida Prediction and Pick 

Alabama is a home underdog for just the second time this season. On Feb. 10, the two-point underdog Gators rallied on their home court to pull away from the No. 12 Auburn Tigers, 81-65. Can we see a repeat performance? 

It starts with defense and if Florida can handle Alabama’s No. 1 offense in efficiency, according to KenPom. The Gators put up a fight in Tuscaloosa last month, holding the Crimson Tide to 8-of-32 from beyond the arc in an overtime loss. Florida’s defense, ranked No. 88 in efficiency, is top-100 in effective field goal percentage and defending 3-point shots. The Gators are No. 3 in the SEC against shots from downtown, which matches up well against an Alabama offense that is fourth in the nation in 3-point attempts per game (30.7) and No. 2 in made 3-pointers per night (11.5).

Florida’s offense is No. 15 in KenPom and has averaged 84.9 points per game against conference foes at home. They’ll face an Alabama defense that is the worst in the SEC in scoring (79.3 points per game) and 10th in the league in giving up offensive rebounds (Florida is the No. 2 offensive rebounding team in the conference).

Florida has won seven consecutive conference home games after falling to Kentucky in the league opener Jan. 6. The Gators can feed off their home crowd once again to hang with the Crimson Tide. Back Florida in The Swamp. 

Pick: Florida +1

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.