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Alabama vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 24

By Iain MacMillan

Feb 21, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears (1) drives against
Feb 21, 2024; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears (1) drives against / Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
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One of the most anticipated college basketball games on Saturday afternoon is set to go down in the SEC when No. 17 Kentucky welcomes No. 13 Alabama to Rupp Arena.

The Crimson Tide are holding on to the top spot in the SEC with an 11-2 conference record while Kentucky fell to 8-5 after a disappointing 75-74 loss to LSU on Wednesday.

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this game.

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Alabama vs. Kentucky odds, spread, and total

Alabama vs. Kentucky betting trends

  • Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
  • The OVER is 5-0 in Alabama's last five games
  • Kentucky is 14-4 straight up in its last 18 games vs. Alabama
  • The OVER is 12-5 in Kentucky's last 17 games
  • The OVER is 12-1 in Kentucky's last 13 home games

Alabama vs. Kentucky how to watch

  • Date: Saturday, Feb. 24
  • Game time: 4:00 pm EST
  • Venue: Rupp Arena
  • How to watch (TV): CBS
  • Alabama record: 19-7 (11-2 in SEC)
  • Kentucky record: 18-8 (8-5 in SEC)

Alabama vs. Kentucky key players to watch

Alabama

Mark Sears: Alabama's guard is the key player for the Crimson Tide every time they take the court. Not only is he leading the team with 20.4 points per game, 7.3 more points more than anyone else, but he's also averaging 4.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Kentucky has to find a way to stop him from taking over the game.

Kentucky

Antonio Reeves: The Mark Sears vs. Antonio Reeves battle is going to be one to watch. One of Reeves' biggest strengths is his refusal to turn the ball over, averaging just 1.2 turnovers per game. He will have to be efficient if the Wildcats want to take down the Crimson Tide.

Alabama vs. Kentucky prediction and pick

There has been a lot of talk about Kentucky's defense and how the Wildcats can't stop any team they play against, and while they rank 303rd in opponent points per game, allowing 77.3, that stat is misleading. Kentucky plays at one of the fastest paces in the country which leads to their opponents having an increased amount of possessions.

If we look at some of their other defensive stats, it will become clear that they aren't nearly as bad on their own side of the court as you may have been led to believe. They rank 69th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 136th in defensive efficiency, and 135th in opponent floor%, which measures the percentage of a team's possessions that result in at least one point being scored.

Sure, those aren't elite defensive numbers, but they're much better than you'd think if you only looked at their points allowed per game. In fact, Kentucky outranks Alabama in all three of the stats I mentioned above.

The most important defensive stat for Kentucky is its opponent three point field goal percentage. The Wildcats keep their opponents to shooting just 31.9% from beyond the arc, the 67th best rate in the country. That will prove to be huge against an Alabama team that takes 48% of its shots from three-point land.

I'll lay the -1.5 points with Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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