Alabama took firm control of the SEC West in Saturday's double-digit win over LSU and now is back on the road against Kentucky.
The Wildcats overwhelmed Mississippi State on the road last week, but Devin Leary may have re-injured his shoulder. With Alabama coming to Lexington, bolstering an elite defense and an offense on the rise, can UK keep up?
Here are the odds and our best bet for Saturday's conference showdown:
Alabama vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total
Kentucky vs. Alabama Betting Trends
- Alabama is 6-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Kentucky is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season
- Kentucky has gone OVER in both games as an underdog
- Alabama has gone OVER in six of nine games this season
Kentucky vs. Alabama How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, November 11th
- Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
- Venue: Kroger Field
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Alabama Record: 8-1
- Kentucky Record: 6-3
Alabama vs. Kentucky Key Players to Watch
Jalen Milroe: Milroe has taken his game up a level as the season continues, fresh off his best performance of the year, completing 15-of-23 passes for 219 yards while adding 155 yards on the ground and four touchdowns. The Alabama offense may not be as elite as it has been in the past several years, but the team has begun to let Milroe operate at his best and is also top 10 in explosive pass offense.
Devin Leary: Leary didn't play in the fourth quarter of the Wildcats' demolition of Mississippi State due in part to a re-aggravated shoshoulderudler injury, among other injuries. Leary had seemingly turned a corner after a brutal start to the year, but if he's had a setback he's going to struggle against the vaunted Alabama pass rush that has 29 sacks on the year and is 21st in yards per play allowed at less than five.
Alabama vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick
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Leary is a full-go for Saturday, but given his struggles already this season, it may be a trying effort for the UK offense, especially if he's having lingering effects in his shoulder.
carrycarryI expect the Wildcats to try and establish the run with 900-yard rusher Ray Davis, but that will go right into the strength of Alabama's defense, which is 30th in yards per rcarry allowed on the year and top 20 in success rate allowed.
Kentucky has been prone to dry spells on offense all season, the team has scored more than 24 points just once in its last four games and I expect Alabama will put together another comprehensive effort on defense.
Meanwhile, Kentucky's defense should do a good job of limiting what's been the most dangerous part of the Crimson Tide offense, the deep passes. Milroe is completing north of 60% of his deep passes this season (passes that travel more than 20 yards), but the Wildcats are top 10 in explosive pass defense and 40th in yards per play allowed.
Alabama is still not on track from a down-to-down perspective, 66th in success rate, right along the national average, but Milroe's ability to create explosive plays has raised the offensive ceiling. However, that's where UK's defense thrives and I believe we see a lower-scoring affair as Bama struggles to find long-sustaining drives.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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