Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Odds (Keep Fading The Crimson Tide)

Alabama heads to LSU in a battle of SEC teams jockeying for position ahead of the SEC Tournament next week.

The Crimson Tide won the first meeting between the two teams but both teams are sputtering towards the finish line of the regular season. LSU has dropped three of four as they welcome Alabama, who has split their last four games but just lost by 16 at home to Texas A&M.

Who has the edge in this one? Let's break it down:

Alabama vs. LSU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Alabama: +5
• LSU: -5

Moneyline:

• Alabama: N/A
• LSU: N/A

Total: 149

Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Alabama's defense continues to be a huge concern, placing 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency in SEC play and trending towards falling out of the top 100 in KenPom's ranking. It may not get any easier against an LSU team that is going to be desperate to get a win back after losing a tough one at Arkansas during the week.

The Tigers have starting point guard Xavier Pinson back and healthy. He accounts for more than 30% of the team's assists, per cbbanalytics.com, and has the offense playing better once again. Since he returned on February 8th, LSU is ranked 45th in barttorvik.com's adjusted offensive efficiency.

I expect the Tigers to give a big effort here to try and build some momentum against an Alabama team that that is playing sloppy basketball. The team shoots a ton of shots from the perimeter, 13th in the country in 3-point rate, but shoot at the 293rd highest percentage. They are also 246th in turnover rate and will be facing a top five defense that is 14-2 at home this season.

LSU is set to thrive in front of a home crowd against an overrated Alabama team. This is a good get right spot for the Tigers, but I do think -5 is a bit high as the two teams are prone to crazy end game results. I'm likely going to look to add LSU in a moneyline parlay.

LEAN: LSU ML when available

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!