Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 5

Can the Crimson Tide cover a big spread on the road?

Sep 23, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) throws a
Sep 23, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) throws a / Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama got back on track, taking care of business against Ole Miss at home to start SEC play with a win, and now hit the road to face a shaky Mississippi State team.

Mississippi State has looked incredibly outmatched in SEC play on defense, allowing 35 or more to both LSU and South Carolina, so this can be another opportunity for Jalen Milroe and Alabama to get on track on offense.

Here's our best bet for this Week 5 matchup:

Get more Week 5 betting insights with our best bets here!

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread and Total

Mississippi State vs. Alabama Betting Trends

  • Alabama is 2-2 against the spread (ATS)
  • Mississippi State is 1-3 ATS this season
  • Mississippi State is 0-2 ATS as an underdog
  • Both Mississippi State games have gone OVER in games that the Bulldogs were an underdog

Alabama vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, September 30
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Alabama Record: 3-1
  • Mississippi State Record: 2-2

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch


Jalen Milroe: Milroe did more than enough to get the win for the Crimson Tide against Ole Miss, completing 17-of-21 passes for 225. While he threw a pick and only ran for 28 yards on 16 carries, Milroe was able to keep the offense on track enough to pounce on enough Ole Miss mistakes to win and cover.

Mississippi State

Will Rogers: Transitioning from the air-raid scheme has led to some growing pains for the Bulldogs as Will Rogers is completing only 59% of his passes with limited downfield passes, averaging less than seven yards per pass. The team will be up against it facing a Crimson Tide defense that should put the team behind the sticks often, so Rogers will need to find his passing game quickly.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Don't miss this FanDuel offer!

All you need to do is click the link below, bet $5 on ANY game, and get $200 in bonus bets.

This is a brutal spot for Mississippi State, who has seen its defense fallen off of a cliff. The team is outside the top 100 in success rate and is 97th in EPA/Play. The team will be the perfect landing spot for a still developing Alabama offensive line.

The Crimson Tide have struggled against some of the better pass rushes in the nation, like Texas or even Ole Miss, but Mississippi State is far more pedestrian and is struggling to slow down anybody in the passing game, allowing more than eight yards per pass (111th in the country) and over a 74% completion percentage (129th).

Sure, a lot of that comes against dangerous passing units like LSU, South Carolina and Arizona, but it's very possibly that the Crimson Tide are able to scheme up a few deep passes early, get ahead and overpower the Bulldogs defense.

Alabama's defense has looked the part this season, top 10 in success rate this season, and Mississippi State's porous offensive line that is outside the top 100 in sacks allowed and 93rd in success rate will struggle to stay on schedule.

It's been tough to trust this Alabama team, but the betting market is still trying to find the bottom with Mississippi State, and this isn't it. Lay it with the Crimson Tide.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!