Alabama vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Feb. 28 (Home Underdog has Value)
By Reed Wallach
Alabama was on the wrong side of a lopsided loss over the weekend as the team continues to struggle on the road this season.
The Crimson Tide remain on the road on Wednesday against Ole Miss, who has been a frisky middling team in the SEC under first year head coach Chris Beard. Can the Rebels hand Alabama another loss away from home as the team seeks a signature win?
Here's our best bet for Wednesday's SEC matchup.
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Alabama vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread and Total
Ole Miss vs. Alabama Betting Trends
- Alabama is 16-10-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Ole Miss is 13-14 ATS this season
- Alabama is 4-7 ATS this season on the road
- Alabama has gone OVER in 20 of 27 games this season
Alabama vs. Ole Miss How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, Feb. 28
- Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Venue: The Pavilion at Ole Miss
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
- Alabama Record: 19-8
- Ole Miss Record: 19-8
Alabama vs. Ole Miss Key Players to Watch
Alabama
Mark Sears: The straw that stirs the drink in Alabama offense, Sears is averaging gaudy numbers this season. He is up to 20 points per game with four rebounds and four assists while making 50% of his field goal attempts and 44% from beyond the arc.
Ole Miss
Matthew Murrell: The senior guard is up to 40% shooting from 3-point range, and may be in for a big outing against Alabama, who has been vulnerable from beyond the arc. Can he go toe-to-toe with Sears and the Crimson Tide offense that is tops in the nation in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric?
Alabama vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick
Alabama's home/road splits are staggering, and a massive concern when expected to go on the road and win with margin.
The Crimson Tide are 356th in Haslametrics away from home rating, a sign that the team sees a massive drop-off when it leaves Coleman Coliseum. The numbers support it too. The offense remains elite on the road, but the defense ranks 314th in effective field goal percentage allowed, per Bart Torvik, and the team fouls at a top 35 rate.
Ole Miss is in the first season under Chris Beard, and while the defense isn't up to the former Texas Tech head coach's standards, the offense has shined. The Rebels are 11th in 3-point percentage nationally and are inside the top 75 in field goal percentage at the rim.
Like Alabama, Ole Miss is willing to push in transition before the defense is set. Against a leaky defense that fouls at a high rate, the Rebels may be able to stay in this game off of misses from the Crimson Tide, who have seen its 3-point percentage drop to 141st on the road this season.
While many will rush to back the Crimson Tide off the blowout loss to Kentucky, I'm siding with the home underdog Rebels to keep this close in a high scoring affair, especially with Alabama possibly eyeing its big game against Tennessee this weekend back at home.
I'll take the points with the home underdog.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!